Market Roundup
• French 12-Month BTF Auction: 2.588%, 2.577% previous.
• French 3-Month BTF Auction: 2.289%, 2.277% previous.
• French 6-Month BTF Auction: 2.440%, 2.385% previous.
• Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May): 52.9, 53.3 previous.
• US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May): 55.1, 55.3 forecast, 54.5 previous.
• US ISM Manufacturing PMI (May): 54.0, 53.3 forecast, 52.7 previous.
• US Construction Spending (MoM) (Apr): 0.4%, 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous.
• US ISM Manufacturing Employment (May): 48.6, 46.4 previous.
• US ISM Manufacturing Prices (May): 82.1, 85.3 forecast, 84.6 previous.
• US ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (May): 56.8, 54.1 previous.
• Mexico S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May): 49.60, 47.70 previous.
• US 3-Month Bill Auction: 3.630%, 3.595% previous.
• US 6-Month Bill Auction: 3.665%, 3.650% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 02:30 Australia Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) (Q1): 0.5% forecast, 5.8% previous.
• 02:30 Australia Current Account (Q1): -22.8B forecast, -21.1B previous.
• 02:30 Australia Building Approvals (MoM) (Apr): -1.5% forecast, -10.5% previous.
• 02:30 Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Apr): 0.6% forecast, 0.7% previous.
• 02:30 Australia Housing Credit (Apr): 0.6% previous
• 02:30 Australia Net Exports Contribution (Q1): -0.1% previous
• 02:30 Australia Building Approvals (YoY) (Apr): 19.70% previous
• 02:30 Australia Business Inventories (MoM) (Q1): -0.1% previous
• 02:30 Australia Company Profits Pre-Tax (QoQ) (Q1): 1.6% previous
• 02:30 Australia Private House Approvals (Apr): 0.9% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped against the dollar on Monday as investors stayed wary of a potential U.S.–Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a development that could ease inflation pressures and reduce expectations for European Central Bank tightening.The U.S. said it struck Iranian military sites at the weekend and Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on Monday it had targeted a U.S. base in response, but President Donald Trump reiterated that Iran really wanted to make a deal.Germany’s 2-year yields , more sensitive to expectations for policy rates, rose 3 basis points (bps) to 2.56%. They reached 2.771% in late March, the highest since July 2024.Money markets are pricing the ECB deposit facility rate at 2.58% by December , up from the current 2% but slightly down from the 2.53% level seen last Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1658(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1693(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1577(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1561(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound initially dipped but recovered most of the ground as investors reacted to reports that Iran had suspended message exchanges revived concerns over Middle East tensions.Iran’s Tasnim news agency said Tehran has stopped message exchanges with the U.S. and is weighing steps to fully block the Strait of Hormuz.The BoE is monitoring how higher energy prices from a potential Strait of Hormuz closure could feed through the economy, while keeping rates unchanged for now.In UK politics, Andy Burnham remains the leading contender to succeed as the next Labour Party leader.Meanwhile, several Fed officials are due to speak this week, alongside key US data including the ISM manufacturing survey and Friday’s May payrolls report. Markets expect employment to rise by 85,000 with unemployment steady at 4.3%, while stronger data could further reduce rate cut expectations.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3475(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3489(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3353(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3278(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weaknedon Monday as the U.S. dollar firmed broadly, driven by safe-haven demand after renewed Middle East tensions.Markets reacted to weekend developments, including U.S.-Iran exchanges and escalating conflict risks, which revived concerns over energy supply disruptions and supported the greenback. Investors also reassessed the outlook for Middle East peace talks, with geopolitical uncertainty keeping risk sentiment fragile and reinforcing demand for the USD across major currencies.Oil prices rose more than 3% after fresh U.S.-Iran strikes and Israel’s escalation in Lebanon, raising fears of widening Middle East conflict and potential supply disruptions.On the data front, Canada’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI slipped to 52.9 in May from 53.3 previously, still signaling expansion but at a slower pace. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3861(38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3943(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3759(50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3750 (SMA 20).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher as investors digested fresh developments in Middle East peace talks after the U.S. and Iran traded blows over the weekend, raising questions about the fragility of diplomatic efforts to end the war.Markets are highly anticipating a speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on Wednesday for possible signals as to whether the central bank will proceed with a rate increase the following week.While there is no consensus yet within the BOJ on the decision, a pause in the central bank's taper of government bond purchases is increasingly seen as a preferred option, two sources familiar with the deliberations said.The yen weakened 0.28% to 159.710 per dollar, close to the psychologically important 160 level that saw intervention by Japanese authorities to strengthen the currency. Inflation erodes the value of the fixed payments from debt. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.78(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.67(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 158.27(April 16th low ).
Equities Recap
European stocks fell on Monday as escalating tensions in the Middle East dampened hopes for a near-term resolution to the Iran war, while investors also digested dealmaking headlines involving Britain's easyJet
.UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.68 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.40 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.45 percent.
Wall Street edged higher on Monday as investors tracked US-Iran peace talks and reacted to a new AI-focused chip launch that boosted tech sentiment.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.09% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.26 % percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.42% percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices surged more than 4% on Monday after Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported Tehran had halted indirect talks with the U.S. and signalled plans, along with allies, to potentially block the Strait of Hormuz amid escalating Middle East tensions.
Brent crude futures settled at $94.98 a barrel, up $3.86, or 4.2%, while U.S. crude futures closed at $92.16 a barrel, up $4.80, or 5.5%.
Gold prices fell on Monday as escalating tensions in the Middle East heightened inflatio
