Market Roundup
• Canada Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (Sep) 5.16%,4.94% previous
• Canada Current Account (Q3) -3.2B ,-8.6Bforecast, -4.7Bprevious
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•23:50 Japan CPI (YoY) (Nov) 1.1% previous
•23:50 Japan Jobs/applications ratio (Oct) 1.24 forecast, 1.24 previous
•23:50 Japan Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Nov) 2.0% forecast, 1.8% previous
•23:50 Japan Tokyo CPI (YoY) (Nov) 1.8% previous
•23:50 Japan CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy (MoM) (Nov) 0.4% previous
•23:50 Japan Unemployment Rate (Oct) 2.5%forecast, 2.4% previous
•23:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) 3.8% forecast, 1.6% previous
•23:50 Japan Industrial Production forecast 1m ahead (MoM) (Nov) 8.3% previous
•00:30 Australia Housing Credit (Oct) 0.5% previous
•00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Oct) 0.5%, 0.5% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against the dollar on Thursday as traders reined in bets of more interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank, while broader currency moves were muted in U.S. holiday-thinned trading. The comments prompted investors to pull back on more aggressive rate cut expectations and buy the common currency which is on track for its worst month in two-and-a-half years.German annual inflation was flat in November despite expectations of a second consecutive increase. It comes ahead of euro zone inflation data on Friday which could offer hints on the ECB's next steps. Money markets now see only a 13% chance of a larger 50 basis points rate cut by the ECB, whereas last Friday it was a toss up. A 25 bps move is fully priced in. The euro slipped 0.2% to $1.054625 after its sharp rise on Wednesday .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0592(Nov 27th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0634(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0531(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0415(23.6%fib)
GBP/USD: Sterling slightly declined against a strong dollar on Thursday due to calm trading session due to U.S. holiday. The British pound fell by 0.1% to $1.26625, but was still on track for its strongest week in 11 weeks due to the decline of the US dollar. Trading activity was low in all markets because U.S. stocks and bonds markets were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. Investors were getting ready to end a turbulent month that saw the dollar rise to its highest level in over four months and put pressure on various major currencies. The pound has not dropped as much as the euro this month due to speculation on a more hawkish Bank of England policy and the potential U.S. tariff threat on the euro zone by President Donald Trump. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2709(Nov 20th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2755(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2652(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2526(23.6%fib)
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged higher against its U.S. counterpart in holiday-thinned trading on Thursday as oil prices rose and investors assessed the chances of Canada avoiding stiff trade tariffs pledged by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, rose 0.4% to $68.99 a barrel after Israel and Lebanese armed group Hezbollah traded accusations that their ceasefire had been violated. Canada’s third-quarter gross domestic product report, due on Friday, could offer clues on the pace of further Bank of Canada interest rate cuts. Economists forecast growth slowing to an annualized rate of 1%.The loonie was trading 0.2% higher at 1.4005 to the U.S. dollar, moving closer to the roughly 1.3985 level prevailing before Trump vowed on Monday to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico as one of his first executive orders.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3959 (23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3988 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3922(Nov 12th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3872(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against the yen on Thursday as investors digested the latest economic data and the potential impact of policies from the incoming U.S. administration. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's pledge to hit Canada and Mexico with tariffs was also having an effect, she added. "It did increase a bit of concern on the possible repercussions from these two countries. So that continues to remain an important support factor for gold. However, Trump's tariff plans are also seen as potential drivers of inflation, which could prompt the U.S. Federal Reserve to slow its interest rate cutting, potentially limiting any further rally in non-yielding bullion. Data on Wednesday showed progress in lowering U.S. inflation appears to have stalled in the past months, suggesting the Fed may proceed cautiously with further rate cuts. Markets now see a 70% chance of a quarter-point rate cut in December. Gold tends to do well in a lower interest rate environment. Immediate resistance can be seen at 152.57 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 153.25 (Daily high). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 150.35 (50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 149.43(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares ticked up along with the dollar on Thursday after both fell the previous day.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.08percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.85 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.51 percent.
US stock markets remained closed on Thursday due to Thanksgiving day.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Thursday as geopolitical uncertainty and trade war concerns fueled safe-haven demand. Trading volumes were expected to remain low due to U.S. markets being closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.
Spot gold was up 0.2% to $2,641.79 per ounce at 10:07 a.m. ET (1507 GMT). U.S. gold futures were steady at $2,642.00. Bullion posted its deepest one-day decline in more than five months earlier on Monday.
Oil prices ticked up on Thursday after Israel and the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah exchanged accusations of violating their ceasefire, and as Israeli tanks fired on southern Lebanon.
Brent crude futures edged up by 34 cents, or 0.5%, to $73.17 a barrel by 2026 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 16 cents, or 0.2%, at $68.88. Trading was thin because of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.
