Market Roundup
• French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q4): -0.1%, 0.0% forecast, 0.0% previous.
•Eurozone PPI (YoY) (Dec): -2.00%, -1.50% forecast, -1.50% previous.
•French PPI (MoM) (Dec): 0.2%, 2.8% forecast, 2.8% previous.
•German Unemployment Rate (Jan): 6.3%, 6.3% forecast, 6.3% previous.
•German Unemployment Change (Jan): 0K, 4K forecast, 3K previous.
•German Unemployment n.s.a. (Jan): 3.085M, 2.910M forecast, 2.910M previous.
•German Unemployment (Jan): 2.976M, 2.977M forecast, 2.977M previous.
•German GDP (QoQ) (Q4): 0.3%, 0.2% forecast, 0.0% previous.
•German GDP (YoY) (Q4): 0.4%, 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous.
•UK Mortgage Approvals (Dec): 61.01K, 65.00K forecast, 64.07K previous.
•UK M4 Money Supply (MoM) (Dec): 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.8% previous.
•UK Mortgage Lending (Dec): 4.60B, 4.50B forecast, 4.59B previous.
•BoE Consumer Credit (Dec): 1.524B, 1.700B forecast, 2.143B previous.
•Eurozone GDP (YoY) (Q4): 1.3%, 1.2% forecast, 1.4% previous.
•Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Q4): 0.3%, 0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous.
•Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Dec): 6.2%, 6.3% forecast, 6.3% previous
•Canada GDP (MoM) (Nov): 0.0%, 0.1% forecast, -0.3% previous.
•US Core PPI (MoM) (Dec): 0.7%, 0.2% forecast, 0.0% previous.
•US PPI (YoY) (Dec): 3.0%, 2.7% forecast, 3.0% previous.
•US PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) (Dec): 3.5%, 3.5% forecast, 3.5% previous.
•US Core PPI (YoY) (Dec): 3.3%, 2.9% forecast, 3.1% previous.
•US PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) (Dec): 0.4%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous.
•Canada GDP (MoM) (Dec): 0.1%, 0.0% forecast, 0.0% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•16:00 Canada Budget Balance (Nov): -2.28B previous.
•16:00 Canada Budget Balance (YoY) (Nov): -18.37B previous.
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count: 411 previous.
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count: 544 previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped against dollar on Friday after German jobless numbers hit 12-year high.The number of unemployed people in Germany hit a 12-year high, surpassing the 3 million mark this month, even after Europe's biggest economy brushed off trade turmoil and outperformed economists' growth expectations last quarter.Labour office figures on Friday highlighted the lag in the jobs market from the economic stagnation of the last few years, with 177,000 more people out of work than in December, bringing the total to 3.08 million. The unemployment rate jumped by 0.4 percentage points to 6.6% in seasonally unadjusted terms.On a positive note, German gross domestic product grew by 0.3% in the fourth quarter compared with the previous three months, beating the consensus forecast of 0.2%. On an annual basis, the statistics office confirmed its first estimate of 0.2% growth.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2047(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2065(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1939 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1849(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound dropped against the dollar on Friday, with the U.S. currency benefiting from growing expectations that former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh will be unveiled as new Fed chair later on Friday.Sterling was last down 0.56% at $1.3742 weakening by a similar amount against the greenback as other majors. Versus the euro, the pound was little changed at 86.70 pence to the common currency. The pound's recent moves have largely been driven by developments elsewhere, though attention is starting to shift to next week's Bank of England meeting.Markets see the BoE as all but certain to hold interest rates steady but the focus will be on updated economic projections and policymakers' voting split as investors try to predict how much more easing the central bank will do this year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3848(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3889(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3691(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3572(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased from 3-year high on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would soon announce his nominee to head the Federal Reserve while optimism grew for Washington to avert a government shutdown. President Donald Trump on Friday chose former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh to head the U.S. central bank when Jerome Powell's leadership term ends in May, giving a frequent Fed critic a chance to put his idea of monetary policy "regime change" into practice at a moment when the White House has pushed for more control over the setting of interest rates.Trump announced the nomination, which requires confirmation by the U.S. Senate, in a post on social media. No public events have been listed on the president's schedule for Friday involving the Fed.The Fed has long been seen as a stabilizing force in global financial markets due in no small part to its perceived independence from politics. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7083(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7108(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.07000(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6958 (38.2%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar firmed against yen on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he had appointed former governor Kevin Warsh as chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve.U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday said he had picked former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh as the next head of the Federal Reserve, when Chair Jerome Powell steps down in May.The nomination caps a months-long process that often resembled a public audition as Warsh, White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett and other top contenders - including sitting Fed governor Christopher Waller and Wall Street insider Rick Rieder - appeared regularly on television to tout their credentials and showcase their thoughts about the economy and Fed policy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.14(50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.36(38.2%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.09(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.28 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European stocks rose on Friday, with strong earnings putting the benchmark index on course for its longest monthly winning streak since 2021.
At (GMT 13:18),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.36 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.82 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.64 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices slipped on Friday on signs that the U.S. may engage in dialogue with Iran over its nuclear programme, reducing concern over potential supply disruptions from a U.S. attack.
Brent crude futures were down 21 cents, or 0.3%, at $70.50 a barrel by 1219 GMT. The March contract expires later on Friday. The more active April contract lost 45 cents, or 0.65%, to $69.14. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 38 cents, or 0.6%, to $65.04 a barrel.
Gold, silver and copper prices fell sharply on Friday after touching record highs earlier in the week, as nervous investors moved to book profits amid fading expectations of aggressive U.S. interest rate cuts and a stabilizing dollar.
Gold was down 4.7% at $5,143.40 an ounce at 1201 GMT and silver had lost 11% to $103.40 after hitting records at $5,594.80 and $121.60 an ounce respectively on Thursday.
