Market Roundup
• US GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 4.4%, 4.3% forecast, 3.8% previous
• US Initial Jobless Claims: 200K, 209K forecast, 199K previous.
•Canada New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Dec): -0.2%, -0.2% forecast, 0.0% previous.
•US Core PCE Prices (Q3): 2.90%, 2.90% forecast, 2.60% previous.
•US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q3): 3.7%, 3.7% forecast, 2.1% previous.
•US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,849K, 1,875K previous.
•US PCE Prices (Q3): 2.8%, 2.8% forecast, 2.1% previous.
•US GDP Sales (Q3): 4.5%, 4.6% forecast, 7.5% previous.
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 201.50K, 205.25K previous.
•US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Oct): 0.2%, 0.2% previous.
•US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Oct): 2.7%, 2.8% previous.
•US Personal Spending (MoM) (Oct): 0.5%, 0.3% previous.
•US PCE Price Index (MoM) (Oct): 0.2% , 0.3% previous.
•US PCE Price Index (YoY) (Oct): 2.7%, 2.8% previous.
•US Personal Income (MoM) (Oct): 0.1%, 0.4% previous.
•US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Nov): 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous.
•US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Nov): 2.8%, 2.8% forecast, 2.7% previous.
•US PCE Price Index (MoM) (Nov): 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous.
•US PCE Price Index (YoY) (Nov): 2.8%, 2.8% forecast, 2.7% previous.
•US Personal Spending (MoM) (Nov): 0.5%, 0.5% forecast, 0.5% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro firmed on Thursday after President Donald Trump dropped tariff threats and ruled out seizing Greenland by force, helping calm jittery markets. Trump’s threat to levy tariffs on allied nations resisting his ambition to control Greenland had spooked markets, triggering a broad selloff of U.S. assets. On the data front, the latest U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report showed consumer spending increasing in November and October, indicating a third straight quarter of strong growth.Markets anticipate the U.S. central bank will implement two quarter-percentage point rate cuts in the latter half of the year, raising non-yielding gold's appeal. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1804(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1836(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1742 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1686(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling climbed above 1.3500 level on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump softened his stance on Greenland, while optimism surrounding a potential Ukraine peace deal further lifted risk sentiment.Diplomats said EU leaders will rethink ties with the U.S. at an emergency summit on Thursday after Donald Trump's threat of tariffs and even military action to acquire Greenland badly shook confidence in the transatlantic relationship and rattled global markets this week.Trump on Wednesday stepped back from imposing tariffs on U.S.-bound exports from eight European countries and ruled out using force to take Greenland, a semi-autonomous territory of NATO ally Denmark, causing global markets to rally.Meanwhile domestic data showed Britain's government borrowed less than expected in December, something that may give Finance Minister Rachel Reeves reasons for optimism in 2026. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3562(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3583(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3464(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3386(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened to a two-week high against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as investors weighed the prospect of continued U.S. policy uncertainty and bet that fiscal spending will help support Canada's economy this year.The Bank of Canada has signaled a potential end to its easing cycle after the benchmark interest rate was lowered by 2.75 percentage points since June 2024. Investors are betting that the rate will be left unchanged at 2.25% next week and through the rest of 2026.Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has committed to investing billions of dollars on infrastructure and measures to raise productivity. Renewed verbal attacks from Trump are prompting Canadians to rally behind Carney.The price of oil , one of Canada's major exports, fell 2.2% to $59.26 a barrel as investors assessed the supply-demand outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3817(SMA20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3855 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3713(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3664(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Thursday as investors awaited BoJ meeting for policy cues.The BoJ is scheduled to announce its decision on Friday and is expected to maintain the status quo after raising the overnight interest rate to 0.75%, or the highest in 30 years in December.Investors will scrutinize Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks during the post-decision press conference for cues about the timing of the next rate hike.The Bank of Japan is likely to lift its growth outlook on Friday and hint at further rate hikes as yen weakness and strong wage growth prospects fuel inflation concerns.Markets will also watch Ueda’s post-meeting press conference for policy cues, especially on how the BOJ balances curbing yen weakness while limiting further bond yield rises. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.49(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.43(SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 156.97 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares rose sharply on Thursday, marking their largest daily gain in nearly two months, as investors welcomed U.S. President Trump’s decision to drop tariff threats and rule out using force over Greenland.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.12 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 1.21 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.99 percent.
Wall Street’s major indexes rose on Thursday for a second consecutive day, boosted by investor buying after U.S. President Trump rescinded tariff threats on European allies and strong U.S. economic data.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.63 % percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.55 % percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.91% percent
Commodities Recap
Gold surged past $4,900/oz for the first time on Thursday, driven by geopolitical tensions, a weaker U.S. dollar, and Fed rate cut expectations, with silver and platinum also reaching record highs.
Spot gold climbed to a record peak of $4,917.65 per ounce, as of 01:51 p.m. ET (18:51 GMT).
U.S. gold futures for February delivery settled 1.6% higher to $4,913.4 per ounce.
Oil prices slid about 2% to a one‑week low on Thursday after U.S. President Trump softened threats toward Greenland and Iran and on signs of potential progress toward ending the Russia‑Ukraine war, easing.
Brent futures fell $1.18, or 1.8%, to settle at $64.06 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $1.26, or 2.1%, to settle at a one-week low of $59.36 a barrel.
