Market Roundup
•US Jul Chicago Fed National Activity -0.34,0.03 forecast, 0.05 previous
•US Jul Continuing Jobless Claims 1,863K ,1,870Kforecast,864K previous
•US Jul Initial Jobless Claims 232K, 232K forecast, 227K previous
•US Jul Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 236.00K, 236.50K previous
•US Aug Manufacturing PMI 48.0,49.5,49.6 previous
•US Aug S&P Global Composite PMI 54.1, 53.2 forecast, 54.3 previous
•US Aug Services PMI 55.2, 54.0 forecast, 55.0 previous
•US Jul Existing Home Sales 3.94M forecast, 3.89M previous
•US Jul Existing Home Sales (MoM ) 1.3%,,1.3% forecast, -5.4% previous
• US Aug KC Fed Composite Index -3,-9 forecast, -13 previous
• US Aug KC Fed Manufacturing Index 6 , -12 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 22:45 New Zealand Core Retail Sales (QoQ) -0.8% forecast, 0.4% previous
• 22:45 New Zealand Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q2 -1.0% forecast, 0.5% previous
• 22:45 New Zealand Retail Sales Quarterly Vs. Year Ago (Q2) -2.4% previous
•23:30 Japan Jul CPI, n.s.a (MoM) 0.1% previous
• 23:30 Japan Jul National Core CPI (YoY) 2.7%, 2.6% previous
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased against the dollar on Thursday ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday, as recent weakness in the greenback was viewed as potentially overextended. The U.S. dollar has declined due to concerns about a slowing economy and expectations that the Federal Reserve might soon cut interest rates. However, uncertainty remains about whether the Fed will implement a 25 or 50 basis point cut at its September meeting. The euro was stable at $1.1137. Traders are closely watching Powell's remarks at the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming, symposium for insights into the anticipated September rate cut and the likelihood of further cuts in subsequent meetings. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1175(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1200(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1098(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1070 (Aug 20th low).
GBP/USD: The pound steadied around 13-month peak against the dollar on Thursday as the British currency was buoyed by business activity data that highlighted consistent growth momentum for the second half of 2024. The preliminary flash estimate of the UK's S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 53.4 in August, up from 52.8 in July, marking the highest reading since April. This was above the median forecast of 52.9 from poll of economists. Readings above 50 indicate growth, and S&P Global noted that these figures suggest the economy is expanding at a quarterly rate of 0.3%. The pound's recent appreciation against the dollar is attributed to the weakening of the U.S. currency, driven by growing market confidence that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in September and continue to do so several times by year-end. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3107(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3128(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3006(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2936(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar slipped against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, retreating from a four-month high. The greenback gained broadly, and a work stoppage at Canada's top two railroads heightened concerns about potential disruptions to the domestic economy. Canadian National Railway Co and Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd locked out over 9,000 unionized workers, resulting in an unprecedented rail stoppage that could inflict billions of dollars in economic damage. The Bank of Canada has already shifted its focus to boosting the economy, analysts say, cutting its benchmark interest rate twice since June to 4.50%. Investors expect more than 200 basis points of additional easing by the end of 2025.The loonie was trading 0.1% lower at 1.3605 to the U.S. dollar, or 73.50 U.S. cents, after touching its strongest intraday level since April 10 at 1.3572.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3646 (38.2 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3679 (50% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3571 (23.6 %fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3547 (Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar rebounded from two week low against yen on Thursday as markets awaited signals on the monetary policy path by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium for global central bankers starts on Thursday, with Jerome Powell set to speak on Friday. Markets are expecting Powell's speech to shed more light on the U.S. interest rate outlook. On the data front, Japan's factory activity contracted in August due to weak demand, though the decline eased. In contrast, the service sector expanded, signaling positive conditions in certain industries, according to a business survey released on Thursday. Strong resistance can be seen at 146.35(Aug 6th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.36(50 %fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 144.42(38.2 %fib), a break below could take the pair towards 144.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
Europe's main stock index rose on Thursday, driven by gains in healthcare and retail stocks. Investors were buoyed by increasing expectations of interest rate cuts from major central banks and analyzed a flood of global economic data.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.06 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.24 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.01 percent.
All three major U.S. stock indexes declined on Thursday, pressured by falling technology shares. The drop came as Treasury yields increased due to reduced recession fears and ahead of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, where global central bank officials are gathering.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.43% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.89% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 1.62% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices dropped more than 1% on Thursday, weighed down by a rebound in the dollar and rising Treasury yields. Traders were anticipating Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech for additional clues on potential rate cuts.
As of 1:42 p.m. ET (1742 GMT), spot gold was down 1.2% at $2,482.16 per ounce, following a record high of $2,531.60 on Tuesday. U.S. gold futures closed 1.2% lower at $2,516.70.
Oil prices rose more than 1% on Thursday, rebounding after four days of declines as hopes for a U.S. interest rate cut in the coming weeks supported the market.
Brent crude futures increased by $1.17, or 1.54%, to $77.22 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed $1.08, or 1.5%, to $73.01.
