Market Roundup
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,892K, 1,880K forecast, 1,853K previous
• US Initial Jobless Claims 221K, 223K forecast, 218K previous
• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 227.25K, 237.00K previous
• US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q3) 2.2%, 2.6% forecast, 2.1% previous
• US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Sep) -0.2%, -0.1% forecast, -0.1% previous
• US Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Sep) 0.3%, 0.2% previous
• US 4-Week Bill Auction 4.515%, 4.580% previous
• US 8-Week Bill Auction 4.490%, 4.555% previous
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) 2.5%, 2.4% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•23:30 Japan Foreign Bonds Buying -889.6B previous
•23:30 Japan Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks 8.0B previous
•23:30 Japan Household Spending (MoM) (Sep) -0.7%, 2.0% previous
•23:30 Japan Household Spending (YoY) (Sep) -1.8% forecast, -1.9% previous
•23:30 Japan Foreign Reserves (USD) (Oct) 1,254.9B previous
•05:00 Japan Coincident Indicator (MoM) (Sep) -3.2% previous
•05:00 Japan Leading Index (MoM) (Sep) -2.4% previous
•05:00 Japan Leading Index (Sep) 108.9, 106.9 previous
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro retreated slightly against dollar on Thursday as investors also digested political turmoil in Germany where Chancellor Olaf Scholz sacked Finance Minister Christian Lindner, causing the ruling three-party coalition to collapse and setting the stage for a snap election The European economy would suffer if Donald Trump enacted his pledges on tariffs and trade barriers, and this could impact European Central Bank policy, Greek Central Bank chief Yannis Stournaras said.German opposition parties and business groups on Thursday urged Chancellor Olaf Scholz to trigger a new election quickly after his rocky three-way coalition collapsed. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0779(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.08(6.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0747(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0710(23.6%fib
GBP/USD: Sterling rallied sharply on Thursday after the Bank of England cut rates but indicated future cuts may be more gradual than many had thought. The BoE, which delivered its second rate cut since 2020, said that after Labour Party finance minister Rachel Reeves' high-tax, high-spend budget last week, it expected higher inflation and growth. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 8-1 to cut rates to 4.75% from 5%, a stronger majority than expectations in a poll for a 7-2 vote in favour of a cut. Sterling rose by as much as 0.78% to $1.298 after the decision , while two-year gilt yields fell 6 basis points to 4.448%, as bond prices rose . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2983(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3062 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2878 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2850 (Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and investors grew less anxious about the prospect of tariffs disrupting Canada's economy.On Wednesday, the currency posted its biggest decline since April, falling 0.8%, as investors globally reacted to the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.Republican President-elect Donald Trump has proposed sweeping tariffs on imported goods. Canada sends about 75% of its exports to the United States, including oil. The loonie was trading 0.6% higher at 1.3860 to the U.S. dollar, or 72.15 U.S. cents, after trading in a range of 1.3851 to 1.3948. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3882(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3964(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3821(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3769 (61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased against yen Thursday as dollar gains cooled off after the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.50-4.75%, as expected, while noting that inflation is somewhat elevated.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said risks were balanced and will adjust policy meeting by meeting. He added that some downside risks to the economy have diminished, that recent data has been strong and that policy is still restrictive.The dollar index pulled back from a four-month high and erased half of Wednesday’s post-election surge as long positions were trimmed before the Fed decision. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.86(23.6 %fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.70(Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.82(38.2%fib a break below could take the pair towards 151.47(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks regained ground on Thursday, boosted by technology and resources shares, while Britain's FTSE 100 dipped after the Bank of England cut interest rates but projected higher inflation following the new government's first budget.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.32 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 1.74 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.76 percent.
U.S. stocks closed higher on Thursday, after the Federal Reserve announced a cut of 25 basis points (bps) in interest rates, extending a sharp rally sparked by Donald Trump's return as U.S. president.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.00% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.74% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 1.54% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose more than 1% on Thursday, helped by a retreat in the U.S. dollar, while the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point as widely expected.
Spot gold was up 1.2% at $2,691.36 per ounce as of 2:22 p.m. EST (1919 GMT), after dropping to a three-week low on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures settled 1.1% higher at $2,705.80.
Oil prices rose nearly 1% on Thursday as the market weighed how President-elect Donald Trump's policies would affect supplies and as drillers cut output while bracing for Hurricane Rafael.
Brent crude oil futures settled up 71 cents, or 0.95%, at $75.63 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 67 cents, or 0.93%, to $72.36.
