Market Roundup
•US Current Account (Q4) -303.9B, -330.0B forecast, -310.3B previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 223K, 224K forecast, 221K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 227.00K, 226.25K previous
•US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar) 12.5, 8.8 forecast, 18.1 previous
•US Philly Fed Business Conditions (Mar) 5.6, 27.8 previous
•US Philly Fed CAPEX Index (Mar) 13.40, 14.00 previous
•US Philly Fed Employment (Mar) 19.7, 5.3 previous
•US Philly Fed New Orders (Mar) 8.7, 21.9 previous
•US Philly Fed Prices Paid (Mar) 48.30, 40.50 previous
•Canada IPPI (YoY) (Feb) 4.9%, 5.6% previous
•Canada IPPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.4%, 0.3% forecast, 1.4% previous
•Canada RMPI (YoY) (Feb) 9.3%, 11.2% previous
•Canada RMPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.3%, -0.3% forecast, 3.5% previous
•US Existing Home Sales (Feb) 4.26M, 3.95M forecast, 4.09M previous
•US Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Feb) 4.2%, -4.7% previous
•US US Leading Index (MoM) (Feb) -0.3%, -0.2% forecast, -0.2% previous
•US Natural Gas Storage 9B, 3B forecast, -62B previous
•US 4-Week Bill Auction 4.215%, 4.225% previous
•US 8-Week Bill Auction 4.215%, 4.220% previous
•US 10-Year TIPS Auction 1.935%, 2.243% previous
•US Fed's Balance Sheet 6,756B, 6,760B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•23:30 Japan CPI, n.s.a (MoM) (Feb) 0.5% previous
•23:30 Japan National Core CPI (YoY) (Feb) 2.9% forecast, 3.2% previous
•23:30 Japan National CPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.5% previous
•23:30 Japan National CPI (YoY) (Feb) 4.0% previous
•23:50 Japan Foreign Bonds Buying -355.9B previous
•23:50 Japan Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks -220.5B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower on Thursday as optimism regarding German spending shifted to concerns about U.S. tariffs and ongoing fighting in Ukraine. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said a 25% U.S. tariff on European imports and EU retaliatory measures would lower euro zone growth about half a percentage point in the first year. She stressed, however, that any estimates of the cost of a trade war were subject to considerable uncertainty. Data on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased slightly last week, suggesting the labor market remained stable in March.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0946 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0804(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0693(50%fib).
GBP/USD:The British pound weakened on Thursday after the Bank of England held rates steady and warned against assuming future cuts amid economic uncertainty. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 8-1, with Swati Dhingra as the lone member favoring a quarter-point cut.The MPC reiterated that inflation pressures are expected to ease, but stressed that monetary policy is not on a pre-set path. It reaffirmed its gradual and cautious approach to rate adjustments, first outlined in February.The BoE also highlighted rising global trade policy uncertainty, citing recent U.S. tariff announcements that have triggered retaliatory measures from other countries. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3012(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3072(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2902(March 17th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2873(38.2%fib)
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar recovered earlier losses against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as rising oil prices and remarks from BoC Governor Tiff Macklem fueled speculation about a potential pause in the central bank’s rate-cutting cycle. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stated that uncertainty over U.S. tariffs has forced a less forward-looking approach to monetary policy, while reaffirming the central bank’s commitment to low inflation.Meanwhile, Canadian small business confidence plummeted to a record low this month as trade tensions escalated, according to data from the Canadian Federation of Independent Business.Oil prices, a key Canadian export, rose 1.6% to $68.24 per barrel, supported by a larger-than-expected U.S. fuel inventory drawdown.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4438(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.44519 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4370(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4215 (50%fib)
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower against the yen on Thursday as rising bets on a Bank of Japan rate hike boosted demand for the safe-haven currency. The BOJ kept rates unchanged but warned of growing global economic uncertainty, indicating future hikes would depend on the impact of U.S. tariffs.Concerns over a global slowdown fueled by Trump's trade policies overshadowed Japan’s progress toward its 2% inflation target, despite steady wage and price growth. The yen has gained nearly 6% this year, driven by expectations of BOJ tightening and increased safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions. Immediate resistance can be seen at 149.82(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.50(61.8%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.11(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.34(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Thursday, snapping a four-session winning streak, as investors took profits and evaluated interest rate decisions from major central banks.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.05 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 1.24 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.95 percent.
U.S. stocks ended slightly lower on Thursday, fluctuating throughout the session as investors weighed economic data and the Fed’s policy statement against ongoing tariff concerns.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.03 %percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.22% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.33% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged lower on Thursday after touching a record high but remained supported by Fed rate cut signals and ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties.
Spot gold was down 0.3% at $3,038.79 an ounce by 11:38 a.m. EDT (1538 GMT) due to profit-taking, after hitting a record high of $3,057.21.
Oil prices climbed on Thursday as new U.S. sanctions on Iran and renewed Middle East tensions offset the impact of a stronger dollar.
Brent crude futures settled up $1.22, or 1.72%, at $72 a barrel.The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) contract for April expired on Thursday, and settled up $1.10 or 1.64% at $68.26.
