Market Roundup
• Canada Average Hourly Wages – Permanent Employees (Nov): 4.0%, 4.0% previous.
• Canada Employment Change (Nov): 53.6K, -1.5K forecast, 66.6K previous.
• Canada Full-Time Employment Change (Nov): -9.4K, -18.5K previous.
• Canada Part-Time Employment Change (Nov): 63.0K, 85.1K previous.
• Canada Participation Rate (Nov): 65.1%, 65.3% previous.
• Canada Unemployment Rate (Nov): 6.5%, 7.0% forecast, 6.9% previous.
•US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Sep): 2.8%, 2.9% forecast, 2.9% previous.
•US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Sep): 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous.
•US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Dec): 4.1%, 4.5% forecast, 4.5% previous.
•US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Dec): 3.2%, 3.4% forecast, 3.4% previous.
•US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Dec): 55.0, 52.0 forecast, 51.0 previous.
•US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec): 53.3, 51.0 previous.
•US Michigan Current Conditions (Dec): 50.7, 51.3 forecast, 51.1 previous.
•US PCE Price Index (MoM) (Sep): 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous.
•US PCE Price Index (YoY) (Sep): 2.8%, 2.8% forecast, 2.7% previous.
•US Personal Income (MoM) (Sep): 0.4%, 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous.
•US Personal Spending (MoM) (Sep): 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.5% previous.
•US Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Sep): 0.0%, 0.2% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Friday as investors digested US economic data and awaited next week's Federal Reserve meeting, where policymakers are widely expected to cut interest rates. Investors are also weighing the prospect of White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett taking over as Fed chair after Jerome Powell’s term ends in May. Hassett is expected to push for more rate cuts. Data on Friday that showed U.S. consumer sentiment improved in early December did little to boost the dollar.Separately, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index increased 0.3% in September after gaining 0.3% in August, the BEA said. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE Price Index gained 0.2% after climbing 0.2% in August, the report delayed by the recent government shutdown showed.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1674(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1692(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1583(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1570(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher against the U.S. dollar on Friday as fading budget concerns and an upward revision to UK business activity data provided support to the pound. Additional strength came from expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its meeting next week, weighing on the dollar and putting it on track for weekly losses.On Wednesday, November’s S&P Global UK Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index, which covers both services and manufacturing, was revised higher. The Bank of England is widely expected to lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points to 3.75% in December after leaving rates unchanged in November. Meanwhile, data released on Friday showed Britain’s housing market slowed in November on both a monthly and annual basis, according to figures from mortgage lender Halifax. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3364(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3427(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3295(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3182(SMA 20).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar posted its biggest gain against the U.S. dollar in six months on Friday, while bond yields jumped, after stronger-than-expected employment data fuelled expectations that the Bank of Canada could begin raising interest rates next year. Canada’s unemployment rate again surprised to the downside in November, falling to a 16-month low as the economy added 53,600 jobs, marking a third consecutive month of robust employment growth.Economists polled expect the Bank of Canada to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a three-year low of 2.25% when it meets on December 10. Meanwhile, investors moved to fully price in an interest rate hike in 2026, up sharply from a 20% probability ahead of the jobs report, according to swap market data. Rising oil prices, a key Canadian export, also provided support to the loonie. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3950(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards at 1.4000 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3813(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3731 (Sep 18th low).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower against the yen on Friday as broad U.S. dollar weakness overshadowed disappointing Japanese household spending data. Household spending in Japan fell at its fastest pace in nearly two years in October, dropping 3.5% on a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis and sharply missing expectations for a 0.7% increase. The weak data has raised concerns about the economic outlook as the Bank of Japan weighs a possible rate hike as early as this month. Household spending will be among the key indicators the central bank considers when deciding whether to raise rates in December or delay the move until next year. Earlier this week, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said the bank would assess the “pros and cons” of a rate hike at its next policy meeting, signaling a strong likelihood of an increase to 0.75% later this month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 156.17(Dec 1st high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.40 (23.6%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.34 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 153.35 (50%fib)
Equities Recap
European stocks were broadly flat on Friday and closed the week slightly higher, as markets digested a long-overdue U.S. inflation report that reinforced bets on a Fed rate cut next week.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.45 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.61 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.09 percent.
U.S. stocks ended the week modestly higher on Friday, as a batch of economic data helped sustain expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.22% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.19% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.31% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices climbed on Friday as rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week lifted sentiment, while silver surged to a record high.
Spot gold was up 1% to $4,212.16 per ounce at 1:36 p.m. ET (1836 GMT), but was on track for a 0.4% weekly loss.
U.S. gold futures for February delivery settled unchanged at $4,243 per ounce
Oil prices edged higher by nearly 1% on Friday, supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut next week that could spur economic activity and fuel demand, as well as geopolitical tensions that may restrict supplies from Russia and Venezuela.
Brent futures rose 49 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $63.75 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 41 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $60.08.
