America’s Roundup: US dollar weakens against safe-haven yen as tariff concerns heighten market volatility, Wall Street ends mixed, Gold slips, Oil drops

Market Roundup

• French 12-Month BTF Auction  1.996%,  2.131% previous

•French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.212%,2.244% previous

• French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.092%,2.211% previous

•US CB Employment Trends Index (Mar) 109.03    ,108.56 previous

•US 3-Month Bill Auction 4.175%, 4.205%

•  US 6-Month Bill Auction 4.000%,4.070%

•New Zealand  NZIER QSBO Capacity Utilization (Q4) 90.5%, 91.3% previous

•New Zealand  NZIER Business Confidence (Q1)   19%, 16% previous          

•New Zealand  Current Account (Feb)   7.18B,2.94B previous                     

•Japan Adjusted Current Account (Feb)    2.32T,2.74T forecast, 1.95T previous       

•Japan Current Account n.s.a. (Feb) 4.061T,3.800T forecast, -0.258T previous

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Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)

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• 05:00    Japan Economy Watchers Current Index (Mar) 45.1 forecast, 45.6 previous     

Looking Ahead Events And other Releases(GMT)

•No Events Ahead

Currency Summaries

EUR/USD: The euro recovered from earlier decline as concerns about a global recession heightened following U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs on trading partners. The European Commission proposed 25% counter-tariffs on a range of U.S. goods on Monday in retaliation to President Donald Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminium.In addition to counter-tariffs, the EU tightened steel safeguards on April 1 to cut imports by 15% and is considering import quotas for aluminum.European Commission President Von der Leyen stated on Monday that the EU is open to negotiations with the U.S., though no concrete trade proposals have been presented yet. Meanwhile, traders are pricing in an ECB deposit rate of 1.70% in December, down from 1.75% on Friday and 1.9% last week, before Trump’s tariff announcement. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1053(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1168(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0856(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0783(April 2nd low).

GBP/USD: The pound weakened against the dollar on Monday as investors moved away from risk-sensitive assets, driven by increasing uncertainty over global trade policy and fears of a recession triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs. Global markets were shaken after Trump warned foreign governments that they would have to pay a significant price to lift the tariffs, which he referred to as medicine. Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated that Britain would fight to secure an economic partnership with the U.S. while also working to reduce trade barriers with key global partners in response to Trump's tariffs. As economic uncertainty mounted, traders raised their expectations for the Bank of England to cut interest rates in May, with bets reaching near 100%, up from 50% before the tariff announcement on Wednesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2900(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3159(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2711(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2511(61.8%fib).

USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar firmed against its U.S. counterpart on Monday as a widening trade war threatened to derail the global economy and despite the prospect of negotiations that could lead to deals. U.S. President Donald Trump said he was not looking at a pause on tariffs to allow for negotiations with trading partners but said he would talk to China, Japan and other countries about the duties.U.S. President Donald Trump said he was not looking at a pause on tariffs to allow for negotiations with trading partners but said he would talk to China, Japan and other countries about the duties.Goods from Canada and Mexico that comply with the USMCA trade agreement among the three countries will largely remain exempt from tariffs, except for auto exports and steel and aluminum which fall under separate tariff policies. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4355 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4470 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4189(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4083 (61.8%fib)

 USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against the yen on Monday as investors flocked to  safety  of yen amid escalating trade tensions. China retaliated with a 34% tariff on U.S. goods and export restrictions on rare earths, intensifying the trade conflict. Investors speculated that the looming recession would outweigh any inflationary impact from the tariffs. The Bank of Japan expressed concerns about growing uncertainty in Japan's economy, as some firms feared the impact of higher U.S. tariffs on profits, potentially disrupting the recovery. While maintaining a positive regional outlook, the BOJ warned that Trump's tariffs could undermine the wage and price cycle necessary for future rate hikes. Immediate resistance can be seen at 148.65(50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 146.95(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 144.93(23.6%fib).

Equities Recap

European shares plunged in a volatile session on Monday, with the STOXX 600 hitting its lowest point since January 2024, as U.S. President Donald Trump remained firm in his aggressive trade war stance.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by  4.38 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 4.38 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 4.78 percent. 

The S&P 500 and Dow closed lower on Monday after a volatile session, as investors grew concerned about an economic slowdown and rising inflation, with U.S. President Donald Trump maintaining a firm stance on tariffs and warning of potential further increases on China.

Dow Jones closed down by 0.91 %percent, S&P 500 closed down  by 0.23% percent, Nasdaq settled up  by  0.10% percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold prices dropped over 2% on Monday as investors sought the dollar as a safe haven, spooked by sweeping U.S. tariffs that intensified concerns about a global recession.

Spot gold was down 2.4% to $2,963.19 an ounce as of 1:36 p.m. ET (1736 GMT), after hitting a near four-week low of $2,955.89 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures settled 2% lower at $2,973.60.

Oil fell by around 3% on Monday to its lowest point since 2021, while most commodity markets, including metals and coffee, also declined as escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China fueled concerns over reduced demand for raw materials.