FxWirePro: GBP/AUD pulls back but bullish outlook persists 
Market Roundup
•Japan Average Cash Earnings (YoY) 3.1%, 3.1% forecast, 1.8% previous
• Japan Overall wage income of employees (Feb) 3.1%, 1.8% previous
• Japan Overtime Pay (YoY) (Feb) 2.20%, 1.50% previous
• Japan Foreign Reserves (USD) (Mar) 1,272.5B, 1,253.3B previous
•Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (Mar) 0.4%, -1.3% previous
•China FX Reserves (USD) (Mar) 3.241T, 3.227T previous
• Japan Coincident Indicator (MoM) (Feb) 0.8%, 0.1% previous
• Japan Leading Index (MoM) (Feb) -0.3%, 0.4% previous
• Japan Leading Index (Feb) 107.9, 107.8 forecast, 108.2 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 08:30 EU Sentix Investor Confidence (Apr) -8.9 forecast, -2.9 previous
• 09:00 UK Mortgage Rate (GBP) (Mar) 7.33% previous
• 09:00 EU Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb) 1.8% forecast, 1.5% previous
•09:00 EU Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) 0.5% forecast, -0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Events And other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Monday as the dollar weakened amid concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump's extensive tariffs and rising fears of a global recession. China struck back with a slew of counter-measures including extra levies of 34% on all U.S. goods and export curbs on some rare earth metals.U.S. President Donald Trump showed no sign of backing away from the tariff plans despite retaliation from China, pushing investors to price in interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve. Traders have ramped up bets of more Federal Reserve rate cuts this year on the view policymakers would have to ease more aggressively to shore up growth in the world's largest economy. Meanwhile, traders are pricing ECB deposit rate at 1.70% in December from 1.75% on Friday and 1.9% last week before Trump's tariff announcement. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1053(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1168(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0856(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0783(April 2nd low).
GBP/USD: Sterling firmed against the dollar on Monday as dollar weakened as steeper-than-expected U.S. tariffs under President Donald Trump stoked fears of a global downturn. China, which is now facing U.S. tariffs of over 50%, slapped extra levies of 34% on all U.S. goods and export curbs on some rare earths, while Trump said that investors would have to take their medicine and he would not do a deal with China until the U.S. trade deficit was sorted out. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was last at 102.64, having tumbled 1% last week. Sterling eased 0.1% to $1.28925. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2975(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3165(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2812(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2686(March 4th low).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar fell on Monday as risk-sensitive Australian dollar attracted sellers on fears that a tit-for-tat global trade war would send the global economy into a recession. U.S. President Donald Trump announced a broad set of reciprocal tariffs, primarily targeting China and its key trading partners. Concerns about the Chinese economy pushed the Australian dollar below 60 cents, marking its lowest point since the COVID-19 pandemic. The RBA held rates steady, citing global risks and waiting for data to determine if inflation will stabilize within the 2-3% target, while concerns over strong labor market growth fueling inflation remain. At GMT 06:33, The Australian dollar was last trading up 0.38% to $0.6003. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6055(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.61470(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.5943(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.5900(Psychological level
USD/JPY: The dollar slipped on Monday as concerns over a trade war and growing recession fears in the U.S. continued to fuel demand for safe haven yen. Fears of a trade war escalated as China retaliated with countermeasures, including a 34% tariff on U.S. goods and export restrictions on some rare earths. Investors bet that the imminent recession risk would outweigh the potential inflation boost from tariffs. The Bank of Japan raised concerns about growing uncertainty in Japan's economy, as some firms feared the impact of higher U.S. tariffs on profits, potentially disrupting the recovery. While maintaining a positive outlook on regional economic conditions, the BOJ warned that Trump's tariffs could undermine the wage and price cycle needed for future interest rate hikes. At GMT 05:59, the US dollar was last trading down 0.65% at 145.92 Japanese yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 146.19(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.87(April 7th high). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 144.72(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 144.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
Asian slipped lower on Monday as steeper-than-expected U.S. tariffs under President Donald Trump stoked fears of a global downturn.
Japan's Nikkei 225 was down 7.68% , South Korea's KOSPI was down 5.57%,Hang Seng was down by 13.36%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices dropped on Monday to their lowest in over three weeks, extending their decline amid a broader market sell-off.
Spot gold was down 0.1% at $3,034.02 an ounce, as of 0537 GMT. Earlier in the session, bullion dropped more than 1% to its lowest point since March 13.U.S. gold futures rose 0.5% to $3,051.00.
Oil prices continued their decline on Monday, with WTI falling over 4%, as escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China heightened fears of a recession, which could reduce demand for crude.
Brent futures declined $2.54, or 3.9%, to $63.04 a barrel at 0745 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures lost $2.5, or 4.03%, to $59.49. Both benchmarks dropped their lowest since April 2021.
