Market Roundup
• Australia MI Inflation Expectations (Apr) 4.2% , 3.6% previous
• China CPI (YoY) (Mar) -0.1%, 0.0% forecast, -0.7% previous
• China CPI (MoM) (Mar) -0.4%,-0.2% forecast,-0.2% previous
• China PPI (YoY) (Mar) -2.5%,-2.3% forecast,-2.2% previous
•Japan 5-Year JGB Auction 0.938%, 1.157% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•08:40 Spanish 10-Years Obligacion Auction 3.382% previous
•08:40 Spanish 7-Years Obligacion Auction 2.809% previous
•09:00 Greek CPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.5% previous
•09:00 Greek HICP (YoY) (Mar) 3.0% previous
•09:00 Greek Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb) 2.0% previous
•09:10 Italian 12-Month BOT Auction 2.337% previous
•10:00 Portuguese CPI (YoY) (Mar) 1.9% forecast, 2.4% previous
•10:00 Portuguese CPI (MoM) (Mar) 1.4%,-0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•12:00 German Buba Vice President Buch Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro rose higher on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump hit pause on reciprocal tariffs, giving battered markets a much-needed break.In a stunning U-turn just hours after the tariffs took effect, Donald Trump announced to temporarily lower the hefty duties for dozens of nations, while further ramping up pressure on China, sending global stocks rocketing higher.The move to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to an eye-watering 125% came after the world's second-largest economy retaliated by raising its duties on U.S. goods to 84%. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was down 0.40% to 102.49, with the euro up by 0.08% at $1.1009.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1078(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1160(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1000(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0951(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound rose against the U.S. dollar on Thursday after President Trump announced a temporary reduction in the hefty tariffs he had recently imposed on several countries. Following a market selloff that erased trillions of dollars from global stocks and caused significant volatility in U.S. Treasury bonds and the U.S. dollar, Trump surprised markets with a 90-day tariff pause on many of the new duties in a major policy reversal.However, Trump’s reversal on country-specific tariffs is not total. A 10% blanket tariff on nearly all U.S. imports will remain in place, according to the White House. The announcement does not impact existing duties on autos, steel, and aluminum. Trump also ramped up pressure on China, confirming an increase in the tariff on Chinese imports to 125%, up from the 104% level that had just taken effect on Wednesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2876(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3026(April 2nd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2704(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2684(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened on Thursday, driven by risk-on sentiment following President Trump’s unexpected respite from the hefty reciprocal tariffs. While Trump maintained a baseline 10% tariff, he escalated the trade war with China, increasing the tariff on Chinese goods to 125%.Investors seem to be focusing more on the 90-day window Trump granted to the world, viewing it as an opportunity for market stability and downplaying the broader escalation of Sino-U.S. trade tensions.The Australian dollar, often seen as a liquid proxy for the Chinese market, benefited from these developments as it closely reflects overall market sentiment, particularly in relation to trade relations with China. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6155(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6206 (Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6057(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.5946(23.6%fib)
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against Japanese yen on Thursday as traders sought safe-haven assets like the yen after Trump escalated the trade war with China while pausing tariffs for 90 days on other countries.In a surprising move, Trump announced Wednesday he would temporarily reduce recently imposed tariffs on several countries while increasing pressure on China, causing U.S. stocks to surge.That dampened some of the optimism from the overnight tariff pause, as markets grew concerned about the long-term impact on growth and how Trump's economic policies would unfold during his term.Investor optimism surrounding the potential for a U.S.-Japan trade deal also provided a positive catalyst for the Japanese yen . Immediate resistance can be seen at 147.97(50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.24(61.8%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 146.43(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 144.46(23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks rallied on Thursday as traders snapped up beaten-down stocks after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would pause the implementation of hefty tariffs hours after they came into force.
Japan's Nikkei 225 was up 8.99% , South Korea's KOSPI was up 6.60%,Hang Seng was up by 1.97%
Commodities Recap
Gold surged more than 1% on Thursday as investors flocked to the precious metal, seeking a safe-haven asset amid heightened trade tensions.
Spot gold climbed 1.2% at $3,120.01 an ounce, as of 0655 GMT. In the previous session, bullion recorded its best day since October 2023. U.S. gold futures rose 1.9% to $3,137.20.
