Market Roundup
• Americans choose between Clinton and Trump after bitter campaign, market hints at Clinton victory.
• US job openings rise to 5.486mn in Sept from 5.453mn in Oct; miss forecast 5.508mn.
• Fed's Evans (Dove): not yet confident US inflation headed higher, as rates rise expect headwinds from strong USD.
• Fed’s Evans: unexpected inflation rise could prompt need for more than 3 hikes by end-’17.
• Oil prices edge higher with Wall St as the US votes, polls indicate Clinton ahead.
• Scotland will intervene in Brexit legal appeal, says Sturgeon.
• US election fever keeps stocks, dollar subdued; Oil up - but gold too; Markets trade in narrow ranges.
• China central bank to keep liquidity ample, To pay attention to curbing asset bubbles, financial risks.
• OPEC sees negative consequences if Algiers accord not implemented.
• US oil futures forward curve steepens, reflects doubt over OPEC restraint.
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
• 23:30 Australia Consumer Sentiment Nov 1.10%-previous
• 23:50 Japan Bank Lending YY Oct 2.20%- previous
• 23:50 Japan Current Account NSA JPY* Sep forecast 1960.2b, 2000.8b- previous
• 01:30 China PPI YY* Oct forecast 0.8%, 0.10%- previous
• 01:30 China CPI YY* Oct forecast 2.1%, 1.90%- previous
• 01:30 China CPI MM* Oct forecast 0%, 0.70%- previous
• 05:00 Japan Economy Watchers Poll* Oct 44.8- previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
• --:-- US Election polls & results, battleground states should become clear 7:30-8:30 EST
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD is supported at 1.1000 levels and currently trading at 1.1018 levels. The pair has made session high at 1.1054 and hit lows at 1.1006 levels. The dollar rose against the low-yielding euro on Tuesday as investors believed a victory for Hillary Clinton in the U.S. presidential election would avert a widely predicted slide for the greenback if rival Donald Trump were to win. Markets broadly have turned away since the weekend from the Trump-driven "risk-off" plays that knocked the dollar last week, helped by an all-clear in an FBI investigation of Clinton's use of personal email while secretary of state. A Trump victory would come as a shock, as the market is pricing in less than a 30 percent chance of that happening. The dollar, steadily on the rise in recent months, had dipped over 2 percent against a basket of currencies that measures its broader strength in the week following FBI director James Comey's announcement the agency was looking into newly discovered emails related to Clinton's use of a private email server.
GBP/USD is supported in the range of 1.2318 levels and currently trading at 1.2368 levels. It reached session high at 1.2414 and dropped to session low at 1.2359 levels. Sterling initially inched higher against US dollar in the US session, but reversed course on nervous trade, with markets holding their breath as Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump approached the finishing line in a tight U.S. presidential election race. Last-minute jitters over the vote overshadowed news that Britain's Supreme Court was likely to rule early next year on parliament's role in Brexit. Last week, England's High Court declared parliamentary approval was needed to begin the formal process of leaving the European Union. Having fallen 1 percent on Monday as the dollar surged on growing expectations of a victory for Clinton who is seen by markets as the status quo candidate sterling was flat on Tuesday. It had gained 3 percent last week, its best performance in seven years, on the High Court's Brexit ruling, Mark Carney's announcement that he would stay on as Bank of England governor until 2019.
USD/CAD is likely to find support at 1.3275 levels and is trading at 1.3285 levels. It has made intraday high at 1.3382 and lows at 1.3285 levels. The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday as investors waited for the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. Cautious expectations of a win for Democrat Hillary Clinton have helped support the loonie at the start of the week after it touched its weakest level since March at C$1.3466 on Friday. A victory for Clinton is seen as less of a threat to Canada's trade-intensive economy. Modest gains for the loonie came despite lower oil prices. U.S. crude prices were down 0.85 percent at $44.51 a barrel, pressured by a retreat in U.S. stock index futures and a firmer U.S. dollar. On the data front, Canadian housing starts slowed in October as condo construction pulled back after a surge in September, data from the national housing agency showed. The Canadian dollar was last trading at C$1.3288 to the greenback, or 74.82 U.S. cents, stronger than Monday's close of C$1.3372, or 74.78 U.S. cents.
USD/JPY is supported around 104.37 levels and currently trading at 105.12 levels. It peaked to hit session high at 105.18 and made session lows at 104.54 levels. The U.S. dollar rose against the yen on Tuesday as demand for the safe-haven currencies decreased on bets that Hillary Clinton will win the U.S. presidential election. A Trump victory would be expected to drive capital into the perceived security of the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. Both fell against the dollar in morning trading. But overall, investors appeared to be consolidating positions after sizeable moves on Monday when the dollar rose about 0.75 percent against six major currencies, its largest one-day percentage gain in nearly a month. The dollar index was flat on Tuesday at 97.775. It rose 0.35 percent against the yen to 104.81 yen and about 0.15 percent against the Swiss franc to 0.9755 franc. U.S. election polls have continued to put Clinton in the lead.
Equities Recap
European shares edged higher in cautious trading on Tuesday, with encouraging updates from some companies underpinning the broader market on a day when investors stayed focused on the election battle in the United States.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.5 percent, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 ended the day up by 0.29 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.2 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.3 percent.
U.S. stocks rose for a second straight session on Tuesday, helped by early voter turnout estimates favoring Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton in the U.S. presidential election.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.39 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 0.37 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 0.51 percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board on Tuesday, recovering from early lows, as investors increasingly priced in an election victory for Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.
In early afternoon trading, benchmark 10-year note yields were down 11/32 in price to yield 1.869 percent, up from Monday's 1.828 percent. U.S. 10-year yields earlier hit a one-week peak of 1.876 percent.
U.S. 30-year bond prices fell 19/32, yielding 2.632 percent, up from 2.602 percent late on Monday. Earlier in the session, 30-year yields hit 2.64 percent, the highest since early June.
Two-year note yields, which are most sensitive to interest rate changes, were at 0.869 percent, up from Monday's 0.822 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices turned lower on Tuesday as the dollar and global equity markets firmed with investors growing more convinced that Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton could win the U.S. presidential election.
Spot gold fell 0.3 percent to $1,277.16 an ounce by 3:21 p.m. EST (2021 GMT), after posting the biggest daily loss in a month on Monday. U.S. gold futures settled down 0.4 percent at $1,274.50 per ounce.
Oil prices ended little changed on Tuesday as the market waited to find out who voters elected to be the next president of the United States.
Brent futures lost 11 cents, or 0.2 percent, to settle at $46.04 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose 9 cents, or 0.2 percent, to settle at $44.98 per barrel.
