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NVIDIA’s Blackwell architecture is facing production challenges, leading analysts to speculate that the company may have canceled its B100 chip. Despite these concerns, NVIDIA maintains that production is on track, while analysts adjust their outlooks and assess the potential impact on the company’s financials.
NVIDIA Faces Blackwell Production Challenges as Analysts Weigh Potential Impact on Earnings and Chip Delays
NVIDIA is currently facing production challenges related to its Blackwell architecture, a situation that has not gone unnoticed by industry analysts. Ahead of NVIDIA's upcoming earnings report, several analysts have released detailed investment notes assessing the potential impact of these production difficulties on the company's financial performance. These analyses also touch on the puzzling absence of the B100 chip in ongoing discussions.
Recent rumors suggest that NVIDIA is struggling to ramp up production of its Blackwell AI GPUs, with unverified reports indicating a possible design flaw in the architecture's "interconnect" technique. However, an NVIDIA spokesperson, responding to inquiries from Wccftech, downplayed any significant issues, stating:
“As we've stated before, Hopper demand is very strong, broad Blackwell sampling has started, and production is on track to ramp in 2H. Beyond that, we don't comment on rumors.”
Despite these assurances, analysts are considering a potential delay in Blackwell shipments in their stock evaluations. For example, Rosenblatt Securities noted that the Blackwell production ramp-up will likely be a significant factor in 2025. Rosenblatt also suggested that the H200 GPU's "mid-cycle kicker " could offset any weaknesses related to Blackwell, driven by hyper scalers efforts to boost performance through liquid-cooled Hopper GPU racks. As a result, Rosenblatt reiterated its price target of $200 per share for NVIDIA, reflecting a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 60x.
KeyBanc Highlights Blackwell Performance Issues, Suggests Potential B100 Chip Cancellation Amid Delays
In a report by Wccftech, KeyBanc offered a different perspective in its note, highlighting potential performance issues with the Blackwell architecture based on supply chain feedback. According to KeyBanc, these issues may necessitate a "respin" of the Blackwell tile, potentially causing a "one-quarter delay."Despite this, KeyBanc does not anticipate a significant impact on NVIDIA's near-term results and guidance, thanks to "higher Hopper bookings." Interestingly, KeyBanc also suggested that NVIDIA might prioritize ramping the B200 chip for hyperscalers while effectively canceling the B100 chip, which could be replaced by a lower-cost/performance variant, the B200A, aimed at enterprise customers.
The suggestion that NVIDIA may have abandoned its B100 chip will likely generate significant interest. Nevertheless, KeyBanc has maintained an overweight rating on NVIDIA shares with a $180 stock price target, reflecting continued confidence in the company's long-term prospects.
