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Moody's Investors Service says that Singapore's (Aaa stable) credit profile reflects the city state's very high per-capita income, a diverse and competitive economy, strong fiscal metrics, and robust institutions.
Singapore currently benefits from the cyclical pickup in external demand, but domestic demand remains muted. In response, the government has implemented targeted assistance to households and other sectors, while adhering to its prudent fiscal framework that prohibits financing deficits through debt.
Ongoing economic restructuring--which intends to shift Singapore away from a historic reliance on the inflow of foreign labor, while concurrently increasing labor productivity--also contributes to lower, albeit less volatile, growth.
Moody's conclusions are contained in its just-released annual credit analysis, "Government of Singapore -- Aaa Stable - Annual credit analysis". This elaborates on the Government of Singapore's credit profile in terms of economic strength, Very High; institutional strength, Very High (+); fiscal strength, Very High (+); and susceptibility to event risk, Very Low, which are the four main analytic factors in Moody's Sovereign Bond Rating Methodology.
Following an economic expansion of 2.7% year-on-year in the first half of 2017, Moody's projects real GDP growth for the full year at 2.5%, the midpoint of the government's forecast of 2.0%-3.0%. External demand will continue to support expansion.
Over the longer term, Singapore faces similar structural challenges to other high-income economies, including an aging population and consequently larger expenditure outlays over the long term.
A track record of fiscal prudence and large fiscal buffers in the country's sovereign wealth funds provide significant flexibility.
Finally, Singapore's susceptibility to event risk is "Very Low", reflecting the sovereign's strong external buffers, relatively sound banking system and stable political environment.
The stable outlook is premised on the authorities' ability to adapt policies to limit the country's vulnerability to external demand and financial shocks, and to avoid sustained damage to fiscal fundamentals.
