Apple Faces Court Order Over App Store Fees, But Financial Impact Seen as Minimal

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is under renewed legal pressure after a U.S. court ordered it to immediately open its App Store to more competition, citing noncompliance with a 2021 injunction. U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers ruled that Apple knowingly violated the order aimed at allowing developers to guide users to alternative, potentially cheaper, payment methods. The judge also referred Apple and one of its executives to federal prosecutors for possible criminal contempt, stating the company acted deceptively to protect billions in revenue.

The court order demands Apple eliminate a 27% fee on developers for purchases made outside the App Store and prohibits the use of "scare screens" designed to deter third-party payment usage. Apple has denied wrongdoing and filed an appeal against the ruling on Monday.

Despite the legal scrutiny, analysts at Morgan Stanley downplayed the financial risk, calling the situation “worth watching” but with limited impact on Apple’s earnings. In a note to clients, lead analyst Erik Woodring said changes to App Store rules could threaten only about 1.5% of Apple’s per-share earnings, even if 20% of iPhone users adopt external payment options. The brokerage added that this could be offset by a modest 5% price hike across services like iCloud and Apple TV+.

Morgan Stanley also noted that fewer iPhone users are expressing interest in bypassing the App Store, suggesting that investor concerns may be overstated. With Apple’s services segment continuing to drive growth, the long-term financial implications of the ruling may remain minor.

The legal battle adds to mounting global scrutiny over Apple’s App Store practices, but the tech giant appears positioned to weather the regulatory storm with minimal financial disruption.