Arguments for/against an immediate RBNZ 50bps cut

The arguments for an immediate 50bps cut are:

• Why wait? Virtually everybody agrees that the OCR needs to fall by another 75 basis points, and some are saying 125. 50bps now is unlikely to be a policy mistake.
  
  
• This consensus lowers the risk for the RBNZ - if inflation does pop higher in a year's time, the RBNZ can refer back to today's private sector and political commentary.
  
  
• A sharp OCR reduction now would get the exchange rate down faster.
  
  
• The recent dramatic change in New Zealand's economic situation justifies bold action now.

• 50bps now may smack of panic and could actually worsen economic confidence.
  
  
• The RBNZ may want to keep its powder dry and retain the ability to cut rapidly if the situation gets even worse.
  
  
• The housing market is still very strong - the RBNZ may prefer to wait until house price inflation cools before cutting the OCR aggressively.
  
  
• The July OCR Review involves a truncated forecasting process at the RBNZ, and only a one-page press release.