Market Roundup
- US CPI mm,, SA Feb 0.2%, (consensus 0.2%, previous -0.7%)
- US CPI YY, NSA Feb 0%, (consensus -0.1%, previous -0.1%)
- US Core CPI mm,, SA Feb 0.2%, (consensus 0.1%, previous 0.2%)
- US Core CPI YY, NSA Feb 1.7%, (consensus 1.6%, previous 1.6%)
- US CPI Index, NSA Feb 234.72, (consensus 234.6, previous 233.71)
- US Core CPI Index, SA Feb 240.25, (previous 239.87)
- US Real Weekly Earnings mm, Feb-0.1%, (previous 1.2%)
- US Redbook mm, w/e 1.1%, (previous 1%)
- US Redbook YY w/e 2.8%, (previous 2.7%)
- US Monthly Home Price mm, Jan 0.3%, (previous 0.7%)
- US Monthly Home Price YY Jan 5.1%, (previous 5.4%)
- US Monthly Home Price Index mm, Jan 219, (previous 218.30)
- US Markit mfg PMI Flash Mar 55.3, (consensus 54.7, previous 55.10)
- US New Home Sales-Units mm, Feb 0.539m, (consensus 0.465m, previous 0.500m)
- US New Home Sales Chg mm, Feb 7.8%, (previous 4.4%)
- US Rich Fed Comp. Index Mar -8, (previous 0)
- US Rich Fed, Services Index Mar 12, (previous 18)
- US Rich Fed mfg Shipments Mar -13, (previous -1)
- US Cleveland Fed CPI Feb 0.2%, (previous 0.2%)
- Brazil Current Account Feb -6.9b, (consensus -7.700b, previous -10.654b)
- Brazil Foreign Direct Investm't Feb 2.8b, (consensus 3.200b, previous 3.968b)
- Mexico 1st Half-mth Core Infl. Mar 0.15%, (consensus 0.2%, previous 0.28%)
- Mexico 1st Half-mth Infl mm, Mar 0.18%, (consensus 0.21%, previous 0.11%)
- Fed's Bullard Europe's negative rates are somewhat surprising, Fed & mkt expectations should be better aligned than they are
- Fed's Bullard If we don't start normalizing policy now we could be badly behind the curve in 2 years, with US econ expected to be going into a boom there is some upside risk to inflation, expects to see wage inflation pick up in US
- ECB Tells Greek Banks Not to Boost Exposure to Athens Government's Debt (DJN)
- Greece to run out of money by April 20
- Greece hopes to get EUR 1.9b in ECB profits on Greek bonds, 1.2b of bank rescue funds if Eurogroup approves reforms
- Chinese renminbi inclusion in IMF's SDR basket will be central issue for IMF this year
- Brazil's Tombini says Brazil to continue to be vigilant, expects investment & industrial sector to contract, currency swap pgm has fulfilled its goal
- Brazil's Tombini is comfortable w/volume of swaps being offered could keep that level for years
- Mexico inflation, in 12 mos through mid-March, dips below central bank target (2.97%)
- Bank of France has bough EUR 18b of assets as part of ECB APP (Noyer)
- (1745 ET/ 2145 GMT) NewZealand Trade - Imports Feb (consensus 3.75b, previous 3.64b)
- (1745 ET/ 2145 GMT) NewZealand Trade Balance Feb (consensus 392.0m, previous 56.0m)
- (1745 ET/ 2145 GMT) NewZealand Trade Balance YY Feb (consensus -1.82b, previous -1.41b)
- (1745 ET/ 2145 GMT) NewZealand Trade - Exports Feb (consensus 4.09b, previous 3.70b)
- (2030 ET/ 0030 GMT) Australia Reserve Bank of Australia to publish Financial Stability Review report
FX Recap
USD/JPY: After the release of US CPI data USD/JPY bottomed at 119.20, the lowest level since February 27. The pair then gained upside momentum, following new home sales data and the Markit PMI manufacturing report to print a fresh daily high at 119.98. Currently USD/JPY trades at 119.70, at the same level it close yesterday. Despite moving away from the lows, the pair is still facing pressure in the short term. So far the area between 119.00 and 119.30 capped the downside. A break lower could trigger another bearish run. Option expiries for Wednesday 25th March: 118.50 (400M), 120.00 (1.5BLN), 121.00 (700M)
USD/CAD: CAD remained firm backed by a recovery in crude oil prices. After reaching as high as 1.2540 on the day on better results in the US data releases today, USD/CAD pared gains to trade in the 1.2500 neighbourhood. Currently the pair is retreating 0.20% at 1.2496 with the next support at 1.2428 (low ) ahead of 1.2419 (cloud top) and then 1.2400 (psychological level). On the upside, a breakout of 1.2595 (21-d MA) would open the door to 1.2598 (Kijun Sen) and finally 1.2615 (high ). Option expiries for Wednesday 25th March: 1.2440-55 (440M), 1.2550 (465M), 1.2570-75 (270M)
EUR/USD: Good data has seen the re-emergence of the dollar upside accelerated today. The correction lower in EUR/USD seems to have found decent support in the 1.0890/1.0900 region so far. The pair is now trading at 1.0930, down 0.14% on the day. Supports on the downside lie at 1.0890 (low ), 1.0780 (100-h MA) and then 1.0768 (hourly low ). On the flipside hurdle lines up at 1.1062 (high ) ahead of 1.1115 (high Mar.5) and then 1.1123 (61.8% of 1.1534-1.0457). Option expiries for Wednesday 25th March: 1.0800 (1.6BLN), 1.0900 (2.3BLN), 1.1000 (470M), 1.1050 (1.3BLN)
NZD/USD: The kiwi is falling modestly against the greenback on Tuesday but is consolidating around 2-month highs. NZD/USD failed to hold on to gains and pulled back from 0.7696 the strongest level since January 21. NZD/USD has been moving sideways consolidating around 0.7645 with support above 0.7605 and resistance bleow 0.7700. The pair still holds a bullish bias and is up more than 300 pips from a week ago. Currently the pair is trading at 0.7657.
AUD/NZD: AUD/NZD attempted to recover further from record lows reached in yesterday's trade but was unable to hold above 1.0300. The pair now stands at 1.0280/85 slightly below yesterday's closing price. Weak data from China, weakened the aussie in the market, but then, managed to recover amid risk appetite.
