Market Roundup
• New Zealand GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.7%, 0.4% forecast, -1.1% previous
• New Zealand GDP (YoY) (Q4) -1.1%, -1.4% forecast, -1.6% previous
• New Zealand GDP Annual Average (Q4) -0.5%, 0.1% previous
• New Zealand GDP Expenditure (QoQ) (Q4) 0.8%, -0.9% previous
•Australia Employment Change (Feb) -52.8K, 30.8K forecast, 30.5K previous
•Australia Full Employment Change (Feb) -35.7K, 36.9K previous
•Australia Participation Rate (Feb) 66.8%, 67.3% forecast, 67.2% previous
•Australia Reserve Assets Total (Feb) 103.7B, 103.2B previous
•Australia Unemployment Rate (Feb) 4.1%, 4.1% forecast, 4.1% previous
•China PBoC Loan Prime Rate (Mar) 3.60%, 3.60% forecast, 3.60% previous
•China PBoC Loan Prime Rate 3.10%, 3.10% forecast, 3.10% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT
•07:00 UK Average Earnings ex Bonus (Jan) 5.9% forecast, 5.9% previous
•07:00 UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jan) 5.8% forecast, 6.0% previous
•07:00 UK Claimant Count Change (Feb) 7.9K forecast, 22.0K previous
•07:00 UK Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Jan) 95K forecast, 107K previous
•07:00 UK Unemployment Rate (Jan) 4.4% forecast, 4.4% previous
•07:00 Swiss Trade Balance (Feb) 5.010B forecast, 6.124B previous
•07:00 German PPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous
•07:00 German PPI (YoY) (Feb) 1.0% forecast, 0.5% previous
•08:30 Swiss SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q1) 0.25% forecast, 0.50% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 08:00 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
•08:30 Swiss SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
•09:00 Swiss Press Conferences
•09:00 ECB Economic Bulletin
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower on Thursday as investors remained cautious ahead of ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech at the ECON Hearing before the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs in Brussels.Market sentiment was also influenced by comments from former U.S. President Donald Trump, who said he had discussed Russian and Ukrainian requests for a potential peace deal with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, raising hopes for progress in the conflict.Meanwhile, revised data showed eurozone inflation was lower than initially estimated last month, easing concerns that stronger-than-expected price pressures could hinder further ECB rate cuts. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0946 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0804(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0693(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound reached a four-month high on Thursday ahead of the Bank of England’s policy decision. The BoE is expected to hold rates steady, assessing the economic impact of Trump’s trade tariffs and the UK government’s upcoming employer tax hike.With inflation remaining above the 2% target, the BoE has been more cautious in cutting rates compared to the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve, contributing to the UK’s sluggish economic growth. Data on Britain's labour market, including wage growth, are due to be released at 0700 GMT on Thursday.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3012(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3072(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2902(March 17th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2873(38.2%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar weakened against the U.S. dollar on Thursday after a weaker-than-expected jobs report increased the likelihood of a rate cut in May.Australian employment unexpectedly declined by 52,800 in February, ending a streak of strong labor market gains. This suggests the red-hot job market may be starting to cool, although the unemployment rate remained steady.Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that January’s employment gain was revised down to 30,500, while markets had expected a 30,000 increase in February, highlighting a larger-than-anticipated slowdown in hiring.The soft headline result sent the Australian dollar 0.4% lower to $0.6334. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6397(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6413(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6335(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6288(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar weakened against yen on Thursday as rising bets on a Bank of Japan rate hike and escalating geopolitical tensions boosted demand for the safe-haven yen. The Bank of Japan kept rates steady and warned of heightening global economic uncertainty, suggesting the timing of further rate hikes will depend largely on the fallout from U.S. tariffs. The decision came as fears of a global slowdown caused by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policy overshadow wage and price data showing Japan is making progress in durably achieving the BOJ's 2% inflation target. The yen has risen nearly 6% this year as traders bet that the Japanese central bank will hike rates this year as well as benefiting from geopolitical tensions leading to safe asset flows.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 149.82(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.50(61.8%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.11(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.34(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian equities advanced on Thursday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested that tariff-driven inflation pressures would be temporary, even as the central bank adjusted its growth and inflation forecasts.
Japan’s Nikkei 22 was up 0.20% , South Korea's KOSPI was up 0.30%,Hang Seng was down by 1.70 %,
Commodities Recap
Gold climbed to an all-time high on Thursday as the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled two possible interest rate cuts this year, adding to the precious metal's appeal amid ongoing geopolitical and economic tensions.
Spot gold added 0.1% to $3,050.94 an ounce as of 0520 GMT, after touching an all-time high of $3,057.21 earlier in the session.
Oil prices climbed on Thursday, supported by a stronger U.S. demand outlook following a larger-than-expected drop in fuel inventories and a weaker U.S. dollar.
Brent crude futures rose 43 cents, or 0.6%, to stand at $71.21 a barrel by 0423 GMT, their highest level since March 3. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) gained 38 cents, or 0.6%, to $67.54
