Market Roundup
•Chinese Unemployment Rate (Nov): 5.1%, 5.1% forecast, 5.1% previous.
•Chinese Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (Nov): 6.0%, 6.1% previous.
•Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov): 4.8%, 5.0% forecast, 4.9% previous.
•Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Nov): -2.6%, -2.4% forecast, -1.7% previous.
•Chinese Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (Nov): 3.01%, 3.31% previous.
•Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov): 1.3%, 3.0% forecast, 2.9% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•07:00 German WPI (YoY) (Nov): 1.1% previous.
•07:00 Swiss PPI (MoM) (Nov): -0.3% previous.
•07:30 Swiss PPI (YoY) (Nov): -1.7% previous
•10:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct): 0.2 previous.
•10:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct): 1.2% previous.
•11:00 Eurozone Reserve Assets Total (Nov): 1,709.78B forecast, 1.2% previous.
Looking Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro traded flat against dollar on Monday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1752(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1791(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1670(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1618(SMA20).
GBP/USD: Sterling dipped on Monday as investors looked ahead to packed week of key economic events on both sides of the Atlantic. In the U.K., attention turns first to October unemployment figures due Tuesday, where the jobless rate is expected to hold at 5.1%. This will be followed by inflation data on Wednesday, with headline CPI forecast to rise 3.5% year on year. The data will help shape expectations ahead of the Bank of England’s interest rate decision on Thursday, where a 25 basis point rate cut is widely anticipated. Across the Atlantic, U.S November non-farm payrolls are is due on Tuesday, followed by CPI inflation on Thursday, expected to print at 3.0% year on year. Outcomes that shift expectations around the Federal Reserve’s policy path could have a direct impact on sterling-dollar direction.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3423(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3524(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3368(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3282(Dec 10th low).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower against the U.S. dollar on Monday as investors digested weaker-than-expected Chinese retail sales and industrial production data. Chinese industrial output rose 4.8% year on year in November, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed on Monday, marking the weakest pace since August 2024. Growth slowed from 4.9% in October and missed forecasts for a 5.0% increase. Retail sales, a key gauge of consumption, rose just 1.3%, the weakest pace since December 2022, when the world’s second-largest economy lifted pandemic restrictions. The reading fell well short of October’s 2.9% growth and expectations for a 2.8% gain. At home, Australia’s Labor government is expected to unveil its mid-year budget update on Wednesday. Globally, markets are now focused on U.S. November non-farm payrolls due Tuesday and CPI inflation on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6692(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6713(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6613(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6556(SMA 20)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged lower on Monday as the Japanese yen strengthened amid rising expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike. A shift in tone from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has reinforced market bets on a near-term move, potentially as early as this week.The BoJ is widely expected to raise its short-term policy rate to 0.75% from 0.5% at its December 18–19 meeting, as concerns ease that President Donald Trump’s tariffs could significantly damage Japan’s export-reliant economy. With the rate increase largely priced in, investors are likely to focus on the central bank’s guidance regarding the pace of future hikes and the eventual peak of the tightening cycle.On the data front, sentiment among major Japanese manufacturers improved further. Business confidence rose to a four-year high in the three months to December, with the headline index climbing to +15 from +14 in September, according to the BoJ’s closely watched tankan survey, in line with the median market forecast.Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.32(Higher BB) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.88(38.2%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.74 (Lower BB) a break below could take the pair towards 154.24 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks tumbled in early trading on Monday as investors reined in risk-taking at the start of a week sprinkled with key central bank decisions and data releases.
Japan’s, Nikkei 225 was down 1.25%, South Korea’s KOSPI was down 1.84%,Hang Seng was down 1.46 %
Commodities Recap
Oil prices climbed on Monday as supply disruptions tied to escalating U.S.–Venezuela tensions outweighed concerns about oversupply and the potential impact of a Russia–Ukraine peace deal..
Brent crude futures were up 33 cents, or 0.54%, at $61.45 a barrel, as of 0429 GMT, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $57.75 a barrel, up 31 cents, or 0.54%.
Gold extended its gains on Monday, buoyed by a weaker dollar and lower U.S. Treasury yields, as investors awaited key U.S. jobs data for fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook, while silver held steady after last week’s record-breaking rally.
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $4,320.65 an ounce by 0319 GMT. Bullion has climbed about 64% so far this year.U.S. gold futures gained 0.6% to $4,354.00 an ounce.
