Market Roundup
• New Zealand RBNZ Offshore Holdings (Oct) 58.60% , 57.80% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 07:30 Swiss Industrial Production (YoY) (Q3) -0.10% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other releases (GMT)
•08:40 ECB Supervisory Board Member Tuominen Speaks
•10:00 German Buba Vice President Buch Speaks
•10:00 ECB's Elderson Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro slipped against the dollar on Tuesday as the greenback strengthened amid fading expectations of a Fed rate cut next month. A backlog of U.S. economic data, delayed by the federal government shutdown, is due for release this week, including Thursday’s key September nonfarm payrolls report.Despite signs of further slowing in the U.S. economy from recent private-sector indicators, investors have scaled back expectations for a December rate cut, citing uncertainty created by the data gaps. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson added to the caution on Monday, saying the central bank needs to “proceed slowly” with additional easing.Market pricing now reflects less than a 40% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in December, down from more than 60% earlier this month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1630(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.16478(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1583(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1530(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling slipped against the dollar on Tuesday as renewed concerns over the UK’s fiscal outlook and increasingly dovish expectations for the Bank of England kept consistent bearish pressure on the pound. Investors remain cautious amid worries that rising government borrowing, soft economic momentum, and subdued inflation pressures could limit the BoE’s ability to tighten policy further.With sentiment fragile, market attention is now firmly shifting toward the upcoming UK data releases. Wednesday’s CPI report is expected to be a key catalyst for sterling, as traders look for clearer signals on whether inflation is easing fast enough to justify continued dovishness from the BoE. A softer-than-expected print could reinforce expectations of future rate cuts, while a surprise uptick may offer the pound some temporary relief.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3198(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3243(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3000(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2977(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slipped lower against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as investors digested RBA November Meeting Minutes.Australia’s central bank said on Tuesday that it may maintain the cash rate at its current level if incoming data surprises to the upside, though there are also scenarios where further policy easing could be considered.Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s November 3–4 policy meeting showed that the board viewed the current cash rate of 3.6% as slightly restrictive, but noted that this may no longer be the case, pointing to the recent surge in housing credit to investors. A higher-than-expected third-quarter inflation print led the central bank to project inflation remaining above the 2–3% target band until mid-2026, settling at 2.6%, slightly above the 2.5% midpoint of its target range. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6514(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6523 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6473(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6447(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar hovered near a nine-month high on Tuesday as the yen remained under pressure from fiscal concerns and uncertainty surrounding BoJ policy. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama on Tuesday voiced concern over recent currency movements after the yen slid to fresh nine-month lows against the dollar. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is set to meet Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda later on Tuesday to discuss monetary and fiscal policy, drawing heightened market attention amid the yen’s continued weakness. Meanwhile, Japan’s weaker-than-expected Q3 GDP data on Monday has added to pressure on the BoJ to delay potential rate hikes, further undermining the currency. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.89(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.33 (Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 153.44 (38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
Asian equity markets fell on Tuesday, with tech-heavy South Korea and Taiwan leading the declines following a slide in global equities, while regional currencies weakened against a steady dollar.
China A50 was down by 0.01%, South Korean KOSPI was down by 3.16%, while Hang Seng was down 1.84%
Commodities Recap
Oil prices dipped on Tuesday as supply concerns eased after loadings resumed at a key Russian export hub, briefly halted by a Ukrainian drone and missile strike, while traders continued to gauge the impact of Western sanctions on Russian flows.
Brent crude futures were down 46 cents, or 0.72%, at $63.74 a barrel, as of 0420 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 45 cents, or 0.75%, at $59.46 a barrel.
Gold fell for a fourth straight session on Tuesday, weighed down by a firm dollar and diminished prospects of a U.S. interest rate cut next month.
Spot gold was down 0.9% at $4,010 per ounce, as of 0444 GMT. U.S. gold futures for December delivery fell 1.6% to $4,009.20 per ounce.
