Market Roundup
• US Initial Jobless Claims: 231K, 212K forecast, 209K previous.
•US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,844K, 1,850K forecast, 1,819K previous.
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 212.25K, 206.25K previous.
•US JOLTS Job Openings (Dec): 6.542M, 7.200M forecast, 6.928M previous.
•US 4-Week Bill Auction: 3.630%, 3.630% previous.
•US 8-Week Bill Auction: 3.630%, 3.635% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•05:00 Japan Leading Index (MoM) (Dec) 0.1% previous.
•05:00 Japan Coincident Indicator (MoM) (Dec) -1.0% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped on Thursday as investors awaited ECB rate decision . The European Central Bank left interest rates on hold as expected on Thursday and played down the impact of dollar moves on its future choices, with a largely unchanged inflation outlook also suggesting steady policy for months to come.The ECB acknowledged continued uncertainties around global trade policy and geopolitical tensions but said it still saw inflation stabilising at its 2% target over the medium term, and that the euro zone economy was travelling on the path outlined in its December projections.The euro zone's central bank has been on hold since ending a year-long run of rate cuts in June, and surprisingly resilient growth has taken nearly all pressure off policymakers to provide any further support.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1822(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1873(Feb 2nd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1771(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1720(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling weakened on Thursday after the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged in a narrowly split 5–4 vote, signaling that a rate cut could be considered if inflation continues to ease as expected. The close decision surprised markets and underscored increasing divisions within the Monetary Policy Committee over the future policy path.Governor Andrew Bailey was among the five members who voted to hold rates steady but suggested his position could shift if inflation, which is forecast to fall to the Bank’s 2% target from April, shows signs of a sustained decline rather than a temporary drop.Ahead of the decision, rate futures markets had assigned a low probability to a March rate cut and only around a 60% chance of easing in April. The Bank’s cautious tone reinforced expectations that policy easing is approaching, weighing on the pound. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3676(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3728(Feb 4th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3522(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3419(61.8%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as broad-based U.S. dollar strength and falling commodity prices weighed on Canadian dollar.Commodity prices declined, led by a sharp drop in silver, as investors unwound earlier safe-haven positions amid easing global geopolitical tensions. Silver plunged as much as 15%, while oil prices fell more than $1 per barrel after the United States and Iran agreed to hold talks, reducing fears of an immediate escalation.Further pressure came from a stronger U.S. dollar, which climbed to a two-week high. A firmer dollar makes commodities priced in the currency more expensive for holders of other currencies, reducing demand and weighing on commodity-linked currencies such as the Canadian dollar .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3744 (SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3787 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3652(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3482(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar initially gained but gave up ground against the yen on Thursday as investors awaited Sunday’s general election. Polls indicate a likely victory for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, supporting her plans for increased government spending, which has raised concerns about Japan’s already strained public finances.Takaichi called the snap election just three months after taking office to secure a public mandate for her policies. She assumed leadership in October, inheriting a divided party and minority government after Ishiba Shigeru stepped down following electoral defeats. The ruling LDP had faced declining public support due to rising living costs and political funding scandals. Despite this backdrop, Takaichi’s approval ratings have remained strong at around 70% during her first three months in office.Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.89(Dec 18th high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.21(23.6%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.37(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 154.36 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Thursday after the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged and provided little guidance on its next policy move.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.90percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.46 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.29 percent.
Wall Street ended sharply lower on Thursday, with the Nasdaq falling to its lowest level since November, weighed down by declines in Microsoft, Amazon, and other major tech stocks after Alphabet said it could double capital spending on AI to strengthen its position in the rapidly evolving technology.
Dow Jones closed down by 1.20 % percent, S&P 500 closed down by 1.23 % percent, Nasdaq settled down by 1.59% percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices settled down almost 3% on Thursday in choppy trading, after the U.S. and Iran agreed to hold talks in Oman on Friday, easing concerns about Iranian crude supplies.
Brent crude futures settled down $1.91, or 2.75%, at $67.55 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled down $1.85, or 2.84%, at $63.29.
Gold fell on Thursday, while silver slid nearly 14%, as a stronger dollar and a broad market rout prompted investors to liquidate precious metal holdings.
Spot gold lost 1.8% to $4,872.83 per ounce, as of 01:31 p.m. ET (1831 GMT), after hitting a session-low of $4,791.69.
U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled 1.2% lower at $4,889.50 per ounce.
