Asia Roundup: Dollar hits three-week high against the yen, Asian stocks falls, Gold firms, Oil steady -March 3rd,2025

Market Roundup

•Japan BoJ Core CPI (YoY) 2.2%, 2.2% forecast, 2.2% previous   

•Australia Budget focuses on cost of living, economic resilience

• Australia faces uncertain economic outlook amid global risks

Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT

•08:00   Spanish PPI (YoY) (Feb)                 2.6% previous

•09:00 German Business Expectations (Mar) 87.9 forecast, 85.4 previous

•09:00 German Current Assessment (Mar) 85.5 forecast, 85.0 previous

•09:00 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Mar) 86.8 forecast, 85.2 previous

•10:00 UK 20-Year Treasury Gilt Auction 4.836% previous

•10:00 Spanish Consumer Confidence (Feb) 84.9 previous

•10:30 German 5-Year Bobl Auction 2.150%

•11:00 UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Mar) -28 forecast, -23 previous

Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)

•No Events Ahead

Currency Forecast          

EUR/USD: The euro weakened against the dollar on Tuesday as investors weighed the prospect of milder U.S. tariffs, while the dollar strengthened on upbeat economic data.S&P Global's flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index climbed to 53.5 in March from 51.6 in February, indicating continued expansion in the private sector. On Monday, Trump stated that automobile tariffs are coming soon but suggested that not all threatened levies would take effect on April 2. Wall Street interpreted this as a sign of flexibility, easing some market concerns. Trump’s tariff policies are widely expected to slow economic growth, heighten trade tensions, and fuel inflation. Investors now focus on the details of next week's reciprocal tariff announcements and the countries that will be affected. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0946 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0804(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0693(50%fib).

GBP/USD: The British pound eased against the dollar on Tuesday as uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs expected to take effect next week drove safe-haven demand amid fears of economic slowdown, trade tensions, and inflation concerns. Trump said on Monday that automobile tariffs are coming soon, though he suggested that not all threatened levies would take effect on April 2. Trump tariff policies are expected to slow economic growth, escalate trade tensions, and fuel inflation. Markets now turn their attention to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, set for release on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3012(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3072(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2902(March 17th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2873(38.2%fib).

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar held steady against greenback on Tuesday as traders awaited Australia’s Federal Budget and monthly inflation data for further clarity on interest rate policy.Details of the budget will be announced by Treasurer Jim Chalmers in parliament at 1930 local time (0830 GMT).Markets are not expected to react significantly to the announcement, with investors likely focusing instead on broader economic indicators and global market trends.Looking ahead, Australia’s February inflation data is set for release on Wednesday, with forecasts pointing to a 2.5% annual rise. At GMT 07:05, The Australian dollar was last trading up 0.16% to $0.6279. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6347(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6392(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6268(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6214(Lower BB).

 USD/JPY: The dollar reached a three-week high against the yen on Tuesday, boosted by strong U.S. services data and cautious optimism over tariffs. A strong services component in S&P Global's flash U.S. PMI lifted the dollar, while Japan’s economy showed weakness, with both services and manufacturing in contraction.The yen has underperformed in recent weeks, even as tariff and growth concerns pressured the dollar. However, sentiment shifted after last week’s Federal Reserve meeting, where the central bank signaled no urgency in cutting interest rates.Investors anticipate the Bank of Japan will proceed cautiously with monetary tightening. The dollar was last trading at 150.56, It rose to a three-week high of 150.92 yen in the Asia morning. Immediate resistance can be seen at 151.26(Feb 28th high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 152.17(50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 150.11(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 149.29(March 24th low).

Equities Recap           

Asian stocks fell on Tuesday, pressured by a pullback in Chinese tech shares after a strong rally, as investors assessed the possibility of milder U.S. tariffs.  

China A50 was down  0.07%  , South Korea's KOSPI was down 0.62%,Hang Seng was down  by 2.24 %,

Commodities Recap

Gold inched higher on Tuesday as uncertainty over Trump's upcoming tariffs fueled safe-haven demand amid fears of economic slowdown, trade tensions, and rising inflation.

Spot gold was up 0.1% at $3,015.42 an ounce, as of 0425 GMT. U.S. gold futures firmed 0.1% to $3,019.40.

Oil prices remained steady on Tuesday as markets assessed the impact of new U.S. tariffs on countries purchasing Venezuelan oil and the uncertain global demand outlook.

Brent crude futures were up 1 cent at $73.01 a barrel by 0424 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dipped 1 cent to $69.10.