Asia Roundup : Euro leaps to three-year peak, Asian stocks take a beating in brutal end to week ,Gold marks fresh all-time high, Oil gains -April 11th,2025

Market Roundup

• New Zealand Business NZ PMI (Mar)  53.2, 54.1 previous         

•Japan M2 Money Stock (YoY)   0.8%,1.2%forecast, 1.2% previous                           

•Japan M3 Money Supply (Mar)               2,202.2B ,2,202.2B previous        

•UK Construction Output (MoM) (Feb)0.4%, 0.2% forecast, -0.3% previous

•UK Construction Output (YoY) (Feb)1.6%, 1.6% forecast, 0.0% previous

•UK GDP (MoM) (Feb)0.5%, 0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous

•UK GDP (YoY) (Feb)1.4%, 0.9% forecast, 1.2% previous

•UK Index of Services0.6%, 0.5% forecast, 0.4% previous

•UK Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb) 0.1%, -2.3% forecast, -0.5% previous

• UK Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb)1.5%, 0.1% forecast, -0.5% previous

•UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Feb)2.2%, 0.2% forecast, -1.0% previous

• UK Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Feb)0.3%, -2.4% forecast, -0.9% previous

•UK Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Feb)0.6%, 0.4% forecast, 0.3% previous

•UK Trade Balance (Feb) -20.81B, -17.30B forecast, -18.22B previous

•UK Trade Balance Non-EU (Feb)-8.58B,   -7.37B previous            

•German CPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous

•German CPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.2%, 2.2% forecast, 2.3% previous

•German HICP (MoM) (Mar) 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, 0.5% previous

•German HICP (YoY) (Mar) 2.3%, 2.3% forecast, 2.6% previous

Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)

•09:10 Italian 10-Year BTP Auction  3.83% previous

•09:10 Italian 15-Year BTP Auction  4.42% previous

•09:10 Italian 3-Year BTP Auction  2.77% previous

•09:10 Italian 7-Year BTP Auction  3.18% previous

•11:25   UK NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (Mar)  0.4% previous

Looking Ahead Events And other Releases(GMT)

• 10:00  ECOFIN Meetings                                                         

• 10:00  Eurogroup Meetings

Currency Forecast

EUR/USD: The euro rose to three-year peak  on Friday  as dollar sank further   in a brutal end to the week of tit-for-tat worldwide tariffs that have fed fears of a deep recession and shaken investor confidence in U.S. assets.The anxiety has sparked a rush into safe havens, sending the Swiss franc soaring to a decade high against the dollar, and gold to a new peak after a brief but massive relief rally following U.S. President Donald Trump's move to temporarily lower tariffs on many countries. Investors are grappling with worries over the escalating Sino-U.S. trade war after Trump ratcheted up tariffs on Chinese imports, raising them effectively to 145%.China has hit back, hiking its tariffs on the U.S. with each Trump increase, raising fears that Beijing may jack up duties above the current 84%. The euro   surged as much as 1.7% to $1.13855, a level last seen in February 2022. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1388(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1520(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1388(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1141(61.8%fib).

GBP/USD: The British pound strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Friday    as weaker dollar and upbeat UK GDP data boosted pound. Britain’s economy expanded by 0.5% in February, significantly surpassing economists’ expectations of 0.1%, according to data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Friday. On an annual basis, gross domestic product (GDP) was 1.4% higher compared to February last year, also above the anticipated 0.9% increase. Additionally, the ONS revised its previous estimate for January’s GDP, changing it from a 0.1% decline to flat growth, indicating no change from December. Britain’s economy grew by a modest 1.1% in 2024. Last month, government budget forecasters cut their 2025 growth projection in half to 1%, but expect a stronger rebound to 1.9% in 2026. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3040(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3147(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2934(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2821(61.8%fib).

AUD/USD: Australian dollar edged   lower on Friday as investor concerns over tariff uncertainty and the escalating U.S.-China trade war led to a retreat from riskier assets. Markets got a brief break Wednesday as Trump paused tariffs for 90 days on several countries. Still, his growing trade war with China has stoked recession fears and talk of more retaliation. A week of turmoil triggered by President Trump’s tariffs continued with no relief in sight by Friday. Markets expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut its 4.10% cash rate by 25 basis points on May 18.At GMT 07:13, the Australian dollar was trading lower 0.19% at $0.6212 against US dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6335(April 4th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6250(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6146(50%fib)  , a break below could take the pair towards 0.6047(38.2%fib).

 USD/JPY: The dollar   declined against Japanese yen on Friday  as traders sought safe-haven assets as concerns over trade tariffs kept markets on edge. Investors have sought safety since the U.S. announced reciprocal tariffs, pressuring the dollar and boosting safe havens like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen. Trump’s trade war shook global markets again Thursday, with stocks and oil falling on fears China might retaliate with higher tariffs.China has been countering Trump’s tariff hikes, sparking concerns that Beijing could escalate U.S. duties beyond the current 84%.The dollar index  , which measures the greenback against those three currencies and three more major counterparts, sagged as much as 1.2%, taking it temporarily below the 100 level for the first time since July 2023.The U.S. currency slid 0.81% to as low as 143.27 yen .Immediate resistance can be seen at 144.43 (50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.00(Psychological level) On the downside, immediate support is seen at 142.63 (23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 142.00(Psychological level).

Equities Recap

Asian stocks slipped sank further on Friday, while a manic bond selloff took hold in a brutal end to the week of tit-for-tat worldwide tariffs that have fed fears of a deep recession and shaken investor confidence in U.S. assets.

Japan's Nikkei 225 was down 2.96%  , South Korea's KOSPI was down 0.50%,Hang Seng was up  by 1.35%

Commodities Recap

Oil prices rose on Friday after settling more than $2 a barrel lower in the previous session, but were set to drop for a second straight week on concerns over a prolonged trade war between the United States and China.

Brent futures rose 90 cents, or 1.4%, to $64.23 a barrel by 0646 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 88 cents, or 1.5%, to $60.95.