Market Roundup
• New Zealand Current Account (YoY) (Q4) -26.40B, -26.99B previous
• New Zealand Current Account % of GDP (Q4) -6.20%, -6.40% previous
•Japan Adjusted Trade Balance 0.18T, 0.51T forecast, -0.86T previous
•Japan Core Machinery Orders (YoY) (Jan) 4.4%, 6.9% forecast, 4.3% previous
•Japan Core Machinery Orders (MoM) (Jan) -3.5%, -0.1% forecast, -0.8% previous
•Japan Exports (YoY) (Feb) 11.4%, 12.1% forecast, 7.3% previous
•Japan Imports (YoY) (Feb) -0.7%, 0.1% forecast, 16.2% previous
•Japan Trade Balance (Feb) 584.5B, 722.8B forecast, -2,736.6B previous
•Australia MI Leading Index (MoM) (Feb) 0.1% ,0.1% previous
•Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.50%, 0.50% forecast, 0.50% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•10:00 EU Core CPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.6% forecast, -0.9% previous
•10:00 EU Core CPI (YoY) (Feb) 2.6% forecast, 2.7% previous
•10:00 EU CPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.5% forecast, -0.3% previous
•10:00 EU CPI (YoY) (Feb) 2.4% forecast, 2.5% previous
•10:00 EU CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) (Feb) 2.4% previous
•10:00 EU CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) (Feb) -0.3% previous
•10:00 EU CPI, n.s.a (Feb) 127.32 forecast, 126.72 previous
•10:00 EU Wages in Euro Zone (YoY) (Q4) 4.40% previous
•10:00 EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Feb) 2.6% forecast, 2.7% previous
•10:00 EU HICP ex Energy & Food (MoM) (Feb) 0.5% forecast, -0.7% previous
•10:00 EU Labor Cost Index (YoY) (Q4) 4.60% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•12:00 ECB's De Guindos Speaks
•13:00 ECB's Elderson Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped on Wednesday as investor’s exercised caution ahead of a monetary policy decision from the Federal Reserve. The Fed will release its latest policy statement on Wednesday, where the central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, along with its updated summary of economic projections (SEP).Markets are currently pricing in about 60 basis points (bps) of cuts from the Fed this year, although several U.S. central bank officials have cautioned against the Fed moving too quickly on rates and said they would wait to see the impact of tariffs in economic data before making any policy shifts. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0946 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0804(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0693(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound dipped on Wednesday as investors awaited ahead of a rate decision by Federal Reserve and the Bank of England (BoE) .The centrepiece of the week will be the Federal Reserve's policy decision on Wednesday, and any indications on future interest rate cuts to support growth will be key.In the UK, the BoE's rate decision will be in focus on Thursday, a day after the OECD said Britain's economy will grow more slowly than previously expected in 2025 and 2026.While both central banks are expected to stand pat on interest rates this week, traders have priced in at least two rate cuts from both the BoE and the Fed this year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3012(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3072(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2902(March 17th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2873(38.2%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased slightly on Wednesday as traders attention turned and Federal Reserve's policy decision and upcoming Australian employment data.The Fed's policy decision on Wednesday will be key for investors seeking insight into the central bank's view on Trump's policies, their economic impact, and the implications for interest rates.Fed policymakers are expected to keep rates unchanged and will release updated economic projections at the meeting’s conclusion later today..Australia's employment data is set for release on Thursday, with another strong report expected to keep the jobless rate at 4.1%. At GMT 05:30, The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.26 % to $0.6343. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6397(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6413(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6337(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6288(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened on Wednesday as Japanese yen weakened after the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged as widely expected. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady on Wednesday in a widely expected move, as policymakers chose to spend more time gauging how prospects of higher U.S. tariffs would affect the export-focused economy. The board voted unanimously to maintain the bank's short-term policy rate at 0.5% at a two-day meeting that ended on Wednesday .This decision came amid concerns about a global slowdown driven by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policy, which overshadowed wage and price data indicating Japan's progress toward sustainably achieving the BOJ's 2% inflation target. Immediate resistance can be seen at 149.82(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.50(61.8%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.11(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.34(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks were subdued on Wednesday as economic worries and a shifting geopolitical landscape kept risk appetite in check.
Japan’s Nikkei 22 was down 0.20% , South Korea's KOSPI was up 0.62%,Hang Seng was down by 0.03 %,
Commodities Recap
Gold prices surged to a record high on Wednesday as Middle East tensions and trade uncertainties boosted safe-haven demand, while traders awaited the Federal Reserve's policy decision later in the day.
Spot gold was up 0.2% at $3,041.37 an ounce, as of 0540 GMT, after hitting an all-time peak of $3,042.95 earlier in the session.U.S. gold futures gained 0.3% to $3,048.70.
Oil prices dropped on Wednesday after Russia accepted Trump’s proposal for a temporary halt to attacks on energy infrastructure, potentially increasing Russian oil supply in global markets.
Brent crude futures fell 23 cents, or 0.3%, to $70.33 a barrel by 0730 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was down 25 cents, or 0.4%, at $66.65.
