Market Roundup
•New Zealand Business NZ PMI (Feb) 53.9,51.4 previous
• New Zealand FPI (MoM) (Feb) -0.5%, 1.9% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 07:00 U.K. Construction Output (MoM) (Jan) -0.1% forecast, -0.2% previous
•07:00 U.K. Construction Output (YoY) (Jan) 0.4% forecast, 1.5% previous
•07:00 U.K. GDP (MoM) (Jan) 0.1% forecast, 0.4% previous
•07:00 U.K. GDP (YoY) (Jan) 1.2% forecast, 1.5% previous
•07:00 U.K. Index of Services 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
•07:00 U.K. Industrial Production (YoY) (Jan) -0.7% forecast, -1.9% previous
•07:00 U.K. Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan) -0.1% forecast, 0.5% previous
•07:00 U.K. Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Jan) -0.4% forecast, -1.4% previous
•07:00 U.K. Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jan) 0.0% forecast, 0.7% previous
•07:00 U.K. Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Jan) 0.3% forecast, 0.1% previous
•07:00 U.K. Trade Balance (Jan) -16.80B forecast, -17.45B previous
•07:00 U.K. Trade Balance Non-EU (Jan) -6.10B previous
•07:00 German CPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.4% forecast, -0.2% previous
•07:00 German CPI (YoY) (Feb) 2.3% forecast, 2.3% previous
•07:00 German HICP (MoM) (Feb) 0.6% forecast, -0.2% previous
•07:00 German HICP (YoY) (Feb) 2.8% forecast, 2.8% previous
•07:00 German WPI (YoY) (Feb) 0.2% forecast, 0.9% previous
•07:00 German WPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.2% forecast, 0.9% previous
•07:45 EUR French CPI NSA (YoY) (Feb) 1.70% previous
•07:45 EUR French CPI NSA (MoM) (Feb) 0.20% previous
•07:45 EUR French CPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous
•07:45 EUR French CPI (YoY) (Feb) 0.8% forecast, 1.7% previous
•07:45 EUR French HICP (YoY) (Feb) 0.9% forecast, 1.8% previous
•07:45 EUR French HICP (MoM) (Feb) 0.0% forecast, -0.2% previous
•08:00 Spanish CPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.4% forecast, 0.2% previous
•08:00 Spanish CPI (YoY) (Feb) 3.0% forecast, 2.9% previous
•08:00 Spanish HICP (MoM) (Feb) 0.4% forecast, -0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro pulled back further away from a five-month peak on Friday as the EU-U.S. trade spat rattled markets and Germany struggled to pass a massive spending proposal. Increasing volatility in the markets, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 200% tariff on wine, cognac, and other alcoholic imports from Europe.The rising tensions between the long-standing allies followed the EU’s plan to introduce tariffs on American whiskey and other products next month, in retaliation to Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports that were enacted earlier this week. The euro has drawn additional support from Germany's fiscal reset plan involving a 500 billion euro fund for infrastructure and sweeping changes to borrowing rules to revive growth and ramp up military spending in Europe's largest economy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0947 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0804(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0693(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound was little changed on Friday as investors awaited the release of gross domestic product figures for January. At 07:00 GMT the Office for National Statistics will release UK GDP, industrial output, and external trade data. The economy is expected to grow by 0.1% on a monthly basis in January, following a 0.4% gain in December. This data is crucial in helping investors gauge the outlook for economic growth, and its impact could be pivotal in determining the next move for the pound . The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen,pound and the euro, rose 0.11% to 103.95 after two straight days of gains. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3003(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3059(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2876(March 11th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2822(38.2%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar steadied against the U.S. dollar on Friday as investors assessed uncertainties surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff plans. In the latest of many tariff threats, Trump stated Thursday that he would impose a 200% duty on European wine and spirits unless the EU removes retaliatory surcharges on American whiskey and other products set to take effect next month. Next week, central bank meetings, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, will be closely watched as investors seek guidance on interest rates amid uncertainty over Trump's trade policies and their impact on U.S. growth and inflation. At GMT 05:47, The Australian dollar was last trading up 0.16% to $0.6293.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6332(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6382(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6290(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6249(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened on Friday as the yen retraced some of its gains, with markets grappling with escalating global trade tensions and the risks of a sharp economic downturn. The Japanese currency had strengthened to as high as 146.545 per dollar earlier in the week, supported by safe-haven bids and expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) would raise interest rates later this year. Market participants were focused on the first round results of spring wage negotiations, expected later in the day, which could encourage the BOJ to continue normalizing monetary policy. Economists and markets anticipate the central bank will stand pat at its meeting next week as policymakers assess global risks. Immediate resistance can be seen at 148.00(Psychological level) an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.14(March 12th high). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 146.93(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 146.64(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian shares rose on Friday, and global markets attempted a rebound after a brutal selloff, while gold hit a record high as escalating global trade tensions left investors nervous, sparking a flight to safe-haven assets.
Japan’s Nikkei 22 was up 0.81% , South Korea's KOSPI was down 0.10 %,Hang Seng was down by 2.44 %,
Commodities Recap
Gold hit an all-time high on Friday, driven by uncertainty over U.S. tariffs, trade tensions, and growing expectations of monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve.
Spot gold was down 0.1% at $2,984.29 an ounce, as of 0522 GMT. Earlier in the session, safe-haven bullion hit a record high of $2,993.80 and hovered near the key milestone of $3,000.U.S. gold futures rose 0.2% to $2,997.90.
Oil prices rebounded on Friday, recovering some of the more than 1% losses from the previous session, partly due to diminishing prospects of a quick end to the Ukraine war that could restore Russian energy supplies.
Brent crude futures rose 46 cents, or 0.7%, to $70.34 a barrel by 0406 GMT, recovering from a 1.5% decline in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $67.03 a barrel, up 48 cents, or 0.7%, after a 1.7% drop on Thursday.
