Market Roundup
• Australia MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) (Jun): -0.4%, -0.3% previous.
•New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price Index (MoM): -1.0%, 0.7% previous.
•Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (Jun): -0.2%, 2.0% previous.
•Germany Factory Orders (MoM) (May): 1.9%, 1.1% forecast, -3.2% previous.
•Switzerland Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Jun): 2.9%, 3.1% forecast, 3.1% previous.
•Switzerland Unemployment Rate s.a. (Jun): 3.1%, 3.0% forecast, 3.0% previous.
•Eurozone HCOB Construction PMI (Jun): 42.8, 43.7 previous.
•France HCOB Construction PMI (Jun): 38.2, 39.6 previous.
•Germany HCOB Construction PMI (Jun): 44.8, 42.4 previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•09:00 Eurozone PPI (MoM) (May): 0.2%forecast , 0.6% previous.
•09:00 Eurozone PPI (YoY) (May): 5.7% forecast, 4.9% previous.
•09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) (May): 1.5% forecast, 1.0% previous.
•09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) (May): 0.2% forecast, -0.4% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped against dollar on Monday as dollar steadied after last week's soft jobs report lessened the odds of an imminent interest rate hike.The dollar found its feet after having posted its worst weekly performance since April last week, weighed down by a U.S. payrolls report that showed job growth slowed sharply in June, which, together with the weaker oil price, has curbed market expectations for a rate increase this month.Investor are now looking ahead to the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) June meeting on Wednesday for clues about the rate outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1475(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1495(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1368(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1291(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound slipped on Monday as the dollar recovered after last week's soft jobs report lessened the odds of an imminent interest rate hike. Data on Thursday showed U.S. job growth slowed sharply in June and payroll gains for the prior two months were revised lower, pointing to a cooling labour market and prompting markets to dial back bets for a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike.The cooling in energy costs, combined with a softer U.S. payrolls report, led markets to scale back the risk of a Federal Reserve rate hike in the near term, with futures implying a 78% chance of a steady outcome at the July 29 meeting. Minutes of the Fed's last meeting are due on Wednesday and should offer colour on the hawkish turn by some board members, though that preceded the recent slide in oil. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3389(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3485(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3343(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3296(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar dipped against dollar on Monday as Australian dollar weakened following TD-MI Inflation Gauge data.Australia's TD-MI Inflation Gauge, which tracks monthly changes in consumer prices, showed inflation eased in the latest reporting period. The Reserve Bank of Australia will hold its next monetary policy meeting early next month, with the TD-MI Inflation Gauge among the key data releases likely to influence the board's decision.Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor at the Reserve Bank of Australia, is scheduled to deliver a speech in Canberra on Wednesday, with investors watching for fresh signals on the central bank's policy outlook.Markets are wagering the RBA is mostly done hiking after three rate rises this year to 4.35%, with just 10 basis points of tightening priced in for the rest of the year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6952 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6986(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6882(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6822(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose higher against yen on Monday as the pair was supported by renewed dip-buying interest despite a broadly softer U.S. dollar backdrop authorities stand ready to intervene at any time to support the currency.The absence of intervention from Japanese authorities has emboldened speculative investors to push the pair higher, although caution remains elevated as traders remain alert to the possibility of official action if yen weakness accelerates.The Bank of Japan's gradual approach to policy normalization, coupled with concerns over Japan's fiscal outlook, continues to outweigh fears of currency intervention, helping to underpin USD/JPY.Japan's latest government policy blueprint called for sizeable fiscal spending measures and encouraged the BOJ to support domestic demand, reinforcing expectations that monetary policy normalization will remain slow and clouding the outlook for future rate hikes. Immediate resistance can be seen at 162.73(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 163.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 160.81(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 159.58(50%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian share markets eased on Monday as caution took hold ahead of a crucial earnings season for the artificial intelligence sector, while the potential for increased supply weighed on oil prices and promised relief from inflationary pressures.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down by 3.74% , Hang Seng was down at 1.33%, China A50 was down at 1.59%
Commodities Recap
Gold pulled back from a two-week high on Monday, as the dollar edged up from recent lows, though easing bets on U.S. interest rate hikes limited bullion's losses.
Spot gold was down 0.2% at $4,165.21 per ounce, as of 0750 GMT, after hitting its highest since June 22 earlier in the day. U.S. gold futures for August delivery climbed 1.3% to $4,177.20 per ounce.
Oil prices fell by more than 1% on Monday after OPEC+ agreed to further increase its output targets from August while exports from key producers via the Strait of Hormuz are recovering, potentially adding to global supplies.
Brent crude futures fell $1.02, or 1.41%, to $71.10 a barrel at 0756 GMT after settling 0.45% higher on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $67.89 a barrel, down 80 cents, or 1.16%.
