Asia Roundup: Yen perks up after BOJ Governor Ueda comments, Asian stocks wobble, Gold climbs to six-week high, Oil rises-December 1st,2025

Market Roundup

• Australia MI Inflation Gauge (MoM)    0.3%, 0.3% previous       

• Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (Nov) -0.8%, -1.9% previous                             

• Australia Business inventories (MoM) (Q3) -0.9%, 0.1%  previous            

• Australia Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) (Q3)    0.0%, 1.7%forecast,-2.6% previous         

• Australia Company Profits Pre-Tax (QoQ) (Q3)  0.4%, 2.1% previous       

•Japan au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 48.7,48.8 forecast,48.2 previous               

•China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (MoM) (Nov)  49.9, 50.5 forecast,50.6  previous             

Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)  

•08:15   EU HCOB Spain Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 52.3 forecast, 52.1 previous                   

•08:45   EU HCOB Italy Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 50.1 forecast, 49.9 previous                     

•08:50   EU HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 47.8  forecast, 48.8 previous                 

•08:55   EU HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 48.4 forecast,49.6 previous                            

•09:00   EU S&P Global Greece Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 53.5 previous                 

•09:00   EU HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 49.7 forecast,50.0 previous            

•09:30  UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 50.2 forecast,50.2 previous

Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)  

• No Data Ahead                                             

Currency Forecast

EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Monday as investors as investors braced for a pivotal month that could bring the Fed's final rate cut of the year and the confirmation of a dovish successor to Chair Jerome Powell.The sharp repricing of Fed easing expectations and a report that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett has emerged as the frontrunner to be the next Fed chair have dragged on the dollar, which on Friday clocked its worst week in four months.U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there was a good chance President Donald Trump would announce his pick before Christmas.November's U.S. employment report will be released on December 16, after the Fed's policy meeting this month, and will include October nonfarm payrolls.There will be no unemployment rate for October as the longest shutdown in history prevented the collection of the household survey data. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1600(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.16818(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1558(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1524(50%fib).

GBP/USD:    Sterling edged lower against the dollar on Monday  as a bout of risk aversion gripped markets even as U.S. rate-cut optimism remained intact. The foreign exchange market was back in full swing on Monday, having recovered from an hours-long outage at the world's largest exchange operator CME Group last week which upended trading across stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies.Investor focus this week will be on U.S. economic releases that cover manufacturing and services activity as well as consumer sentiment. The bets have increased over the last few weeks following softer U.S. labour data and supporting comments by Fed officials including Governor Christopher Waller, who said that the weak job market warranted another quarter-point rate cut in December.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3253(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3273(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3122(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3051(23.6%fib).

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar dipped slightly on Monday as weak Chinese manufacturing data dampened risk sentiment. A private survey showed China’s factory activity contracted in November, with production growth stalling and new orders slowing. The S&P Global/RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.9 from 50.6 in October, below the Reuters poll forecast of 50.5, with readings under 50 signaling contraction.Earlier in November, the Australian dollaroften a proxy for global risk appetitewas pressured by declines in tech stocks amid concerns over lofty AI valuations, though it found support from higher local yields as interest rate expectations diverged from the U.S. Looking ahead, markets will focus on Australia’s GDP release on Wednesday, with a 0.7% quarter-on-quarter increase anticipated. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6560(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6583 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6504(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6468(Nov 26th low)

USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped lower against the yen on Monday as the yen strengthened after the BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated the possibility of a near-term rate hike.Ueda was sanguine on the economic impact of U.S. tariffs, saying corporate profit remained elevated and uncertainty surrounding the outlook for domestic growth was diminishing.Ueda noted that even with another hike, real rates would remain deeply negative, meaning borrowing costs would stay low and policy would simply ease pressure rather than tighten sharply.He said the bank must time its policy rate increase carefully neither too late nor too early to ensure inflation reaches its 2% target smoothly.Bank of Japan ended its massive, decade-long stimulus program last year and lifted its policy rate to 0.5% in January, citing confidence that inflation was nearing its sustainable 2% target. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.83(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at  155.63 (38.2%fib)  a break below could take the pair towards 155.08 (SMA 20)

Equities Recap

Asian wobbled on Monday after a strong end to November as a bout of risk aversion gripped markets even as U.S. rate-cut optimism remained intact.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 dipped 1.87%,South Korean KOSPI was down 0.16%,Hang Seng was up by 0.58%

Commodities Recap

Gold steadied on Monday after reaching a six-week peak, as risk-off sentiment dominated and investors eyed a potential U.S. rate cut, while silver hit a record high.

 Spot gold   was up 0.1% at $4,235.59 per ounce as of 0645 GMT after touching its highest since October 21. U.S. gold futures   for December delivery gained 0.3% to $4,269.40.

Oil prices climbed on Monday after OPEC+ confirmed plans to maintain output, with supply concerns heightened by a halt in Caspian Pipeline Consortium exports following a major drone attack and rising U.S.-Venezuela tensions.

Brent crude futures advanced $1.01, or 1.62%, to $63.39 a barrel at 0401 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained $1, or 1.71%, to $59.55.