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Asian Currencies Weaken as Dollar Rises, Kiwi Slides After RBNZ Hike

Asian Currencies Weaken as Dollar Rises, Kiwi Slides After RBNZ Hike. Source: Image by Squirrel_photos from Pixabay

Asian currencies mostly weakened on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar traded near a two-week high, while the New Zealand dollar fell sharply despite the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raising interest rates.

The kiwi dropped to its weakest level since August 13, with USD/NZD rising 0.9% to 0.5843. The RBNZ increased its official cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, in line with expectations, but investors viewed its guidance on further tightening as less hawkish than anticipated.

ANZ analysts said the central bank’s policy outlook did not clearly signal another rate increase in October, pushing New Zealand wholesale rates and the currency lower.

The U.S. dollar remained supported by higher Treasury yields, renewed geopolitical tensions involving Iran and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise rates in September. Markets now see a 68% probability of a September Fed hike, up from roughly 40% a week earlier, according to CME FedWatch.

That shift came despite weaker-than-expected U.S. JOLTS job openings and ISM manufacturing data. Investors are now awaiting Friday’s U.S. employment report and next week’s inflation figures for further clues on Fed policy.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.81%, its highest since late 2023, as rising oil prices fueled inflation concerns following renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities.

The Australian dollar also weakened slightly, with USD/AUD at 1.4006. Australia’s 10-year bond yield touched 5.25%, its highest since July 2011. Australian GDP expanded 0.4% in the June quarter and 2.1% year over year, while markets priced a 58% probability of a Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike on September 29.

Meanwhile, USD/JPY traded around 160.21 as the yen remained near the closely watched 160-per-dollar threshold. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said officials will debate a potential rate increase at their September 17-18 meeting as inflation risks remain in focus.

The Chinese yuan and Singapore dollar weakened slightly, while the Indian rupee and South Korean won strengthened. Malaysia’s ringgit also moved higher ahead of the country’s central bank decision on Thursday.

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