Canadian export sector to meaningfully contribute to economic momentum in the months ahead
The sharp decline in oil prices over the past year has led to a pull back in profits and investment in the energy sector, and called into question the future drivers of Canadian economic growth."We believe exports will s…
The sharp decline in oil prices over the past year has led to a pull back in profits and investment in the energy sector, and called into question the future drivers of Canadian economic growth.
"We believe exports will step up and fill a large part of this void. Indeed, the low Canadian dollar and resurgent U.S. and European demand should provide the right conditions for export growth." notes TD Economics
But not all sectors are expected to receive the same boost. This can be chalked up to both cyclical and structural factors. Cyclical factors such as the value of the loonie and renewed growth in foreign demand, as proxied by TD's newly developed Foreign Activity Index, are forecast to boost growth in most sectors.
Only the auto sector looks to be hobbled by persistent structural weakness. With Mexican auto production having surpassed that of Canada starting in 2010 and all newly-announced investment going to Mexico and the U.S., Canadian automotive won't be a key driver of exports.
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