Canadian job growth likely to have decelerated in December, jobless rate to have remained at 5.6 pct

Canadian employment data for the month of December is set to release tomorrow. According to a TD Economics research report, job growth is likely to have decelerated to 15k in the month after the 94k rise seen in the prior month. While the LFS is volatile and has a tendency to mean-revert after an outsized move, these gains might be sustained given a large gap between cumulative job growth for 2018 reported in the LFS versus that from payroll data.

The jobless rate is expected to have remained at the current post-crisis low of 5.6 percent, although other details should prove more downbeat.

“We see scope for full time employment to give back some of the 90k jobs created in November, leaving part-time hiring to drive job growth. And while wage growth is forecast to edge higher to 1.6 percent y/y, this is still quite subdued relative to historical norms especially given the diminished slack in the labour market”, added TD Economics.

At 19:00 GMT the FxWirePro's Hourly Strength Index of Canadian Dollar was slightly bullish at -30.1152, while the FxWirePro's Hourly Strength Index of US Dollar was neutral at 37.6591. For more details on FxWirePro's Currency Strength Index, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex