Canadian jobless rate likely to have risen to 5.9 pct in April, job losses of 10k expected

Canadian employment data for the month of April is set to release tomorrow. According to a TD Economics research report, the economy is likely to have given back 10k jobs, which might help nudge the rate lower after averaging 36k for the six months through March. The recent labor market gains are unwarranted by current economic backdrop, and while it is difficult to forecast the timing of a giveback, this might skew the risks towards a weak print.

Full-time employment should drive the pullback, which might add to the downbeat tone of the report, while the goods-producing sector should account for most of the jobs lost during the month with manufacturing in the spotlight after Markit PMI fell into contraction territory for first time in three years.

“Job losses of 10k should see the unemployment rate edge higher to 5.9 percent assuming modest labour force growth while we expect wage growth to hold at 2.3 percent y/y”.

At 18:00 GMT the FxWirePro's Hourly Strength Index of Canadian Dollar was highly bearish at -108.548 while the FxWirePro's Hourly Strength Index of US Dollar was neutral at -34.6861 more details on FxWirePro's Currency Strength Index, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex