Catalonia on the road to independence?

Next Sunday's regional elections in Catalonia have assumed the role of an independence referendum, something that the Spanish government has so far refused to countenance. Undecided Catalan voters could affect the outcome of the vote, but the polls suggest that the extreme left CUP (Popular Unity Candidacy) party and the pro-independence parties making up the "Junts pel Sí" ("Together for Yes") list could get a majority of Parliamentary seats after the 27 September vote, even if they don't claim a majority of the votes.

Victory for the pro-independence movement would open the way for a separation process that could lead to Catalonia gaining independence after 18 months. The ruling Popular Party (PP) has so far taken a hard line and rejected any notion of Catalonian independence.

"It is hard to assess the possible impact of independence, and the ensuing departure from the euro zone of Catalonia, which represents nearly 20% of Spain's GDP and a quarter of its exports. It is however likely, that taking into account the potential severe consequences (economic and financial) of a breakdown will lead the various groups to engage in negotiations with a view to granting the region greater autonomy", says BNP Paribas.