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China's economic growth is expected to decelerate further to 6.3 percent next year, and 6.1 percent in 2020, partly because of slower credit expansion, according to a recent research report from S&P Global Ratings.
Macroeconomic risks for Asia-Pacific have risen but our baseline for the latest assessment of the region's credit conditions remains broadly unchanged, said S&P Global Ratings in a report released today, titled "Escalating Trade Measures Reorder Macro Risks In Asia-Pacific."
Risks to S&P Global Ratings' baseline have reordered with trade tensions moving to the top of the list ahead of capital market volatility related to U.S. Federal Reserve policy normalization, and deleveraging in China. Despite rising trade tensions, Asia-Pacific's macroeconomic data continue to look healthy.
"There were no macro surprises out of China, which grew by 6.8 percent year on year in the first quarter. But we wonder how long quarterly growth can remain above the official 6.5 percent target for this year, given steadily increasing evidence that deleveraging efforts are intensifying," said Paul Gruenwald, Chief Economist, S&P Global Ratings.
Monetary policymakers in Asia-Pacific remain cautious, but in some cases have begun to raise rates. We maintain our view that central banks in the region will follow the Fed in raising policy rates with a lag, and by lower amounts.
