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China’s gross domestic product (GDP) kick-started the year with a strong rebound, partly due to base effect as on the sequential basis the GDP growth slowed to seasonally adjusted 1.3 percent q/q, lowest since China released the q/q data from 2010.
The recovery in the first quarter was genuine despite favorable base effect and was mainly attributable to two factors including steady global growth and improving private sentiment. The Chinese economy has benefitted from the resilient global recovery, which led to re-stock cycle.
The still strong medium-to-long term loan demand from both corporate and household sectors shows that the optimism may continue in the second quarter. However, the call for a slower growth in the second half remained unchanged due to two reasons including less support from property sector as well as the impact of tighter monetary policy as China is moving deeper into its de-leverage campaign as well as its intention to curb asset bubble in both equity and property markets.
"We think the recovery in the first quarter was genuine despite favorable base effect and was mainly attributable to two factors including steady global growth and improving private sentiment," OCBC Treasury Research commented in its latest research report.
