Chinese exports growth likely to have decelerated in October, trade balance to deteriorate in months ahead

China’s trade balance data is set to be released this week. This year, the Chinese economy has been at the centre of global economic focus in the midst of the ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. Trade figures of China have been of particular interest at the U.S. imposed tariffs on a total of USD 250 billion, or roughly half, of all imports from China, noted Wells Fargo in a research report.

It is difficult to exactly quantify the impact of those tariffs on Chinese trade, but there have not been material signs of decelerating in total Chinese export growth. Export growth has risen in recent month, possibly a reflection of Chinese exporters looking to get ahead of likely further tariffs from the U.S. administration.

“Thus, it will be important to watch these figures in the coming months to see whether there is a continued pickup or a renewed slowdown”, stated Wells Fargo.

According to a DBS Bank research report, Chinese exports are expected to have decelerated to 7.5 percent in October from September’s 14.5 percent. Import growth is also likely to have eased back because of deceleration in domestic activities, at 13.5 percent year-on-year, in spite of appreciable rise in oil prices.

“In fact, early indicators already point to moderating trade sentiments. New export orders PMI and imports PMI are in contractionary zone for 5 and 4 consecutive months respectively. Trading balance is set to deteriorate in the months ahead”, added DBS Bank.

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