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Gold is meant to be a ‘safe haven’ in uncertain times. Why is it crashing amid a war? 
Gold prices are flat due to the holiday season. They reached a high of $2,633 recently and are currently trading around $2,610.
Durable Goods Orders Decline
U.S. durable goods orders dropped by 1.1% in November 2024 to $285.1 billion, which is worse than the expected 0.4% decline. The main cause of this drop was a 2.9% decrease in orders for transportation equipment. However, when excluding transportation, core durable goods orders only fell by 0.1%, showing stability in those areas. Overall, durable goods orders are down 5.2% compared to last year, indicating ongoing challenges in manufacturing, but some sectors, like machinery and primary metals, did see slight growth.
Consumer Confidence Drops
U.S. consumer confidence fell sharply in December 2024, with the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index dropping by 8.1 points to 104.7. This is the first decline in three months and shows a drop in consumer sentiment. The Present Situation Index, which looks at current business and job market conditions, fell slightly, while the Expectations Index decreased significantly by 12.6 points to just above 80, raising concerns about a possible recession. As consumers have weaker views on future business conditions and income prospects, they are becoming more cautious about their finances heading into the new year.
Market Expectations for Interest Rates
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chance of the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate increases in January has risen to 91.40%, up from 81.60% a week ago. This indicates changing expectations in the market.
Technical Analysis of Gold Prices
From a technical perspective, gold prices are currently below both short-term and long-term moving averages, suggesting a bearish trend. Immediate support is at $2,570, with potential declines to $2,559, $2,536, and $2,500. Resistance is at $2,635; if prices break through this level, they could rise to $2,660, $2,685, $2,700, $2,730, $2,750, and $2,775.
Suggested Trading Strategy
A good trading strategy is to buy on dips around $2,600, keep a stop-loss at $2,570, and aim for a target price of $2,725.
