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Global cobalt demand is forecast to outstrip supply in the coming years, shifting the market from surplus to deficit by the early 2030s, according to new research from the Cobalt Institute and Benchmark Minerals Intelligence.
In 2024, cobalt faced a surplus of 36,000 metric tons—about 15% of total demand—up from 25,000 tons in 2023. However, demand is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7%, reaching 400,000 tons by the early 2030s, driven primarily by the electric vehicle (EV) boom. EVs, which currently represent 43% of cobalt consumption, will account for 57% by 2030. Other segments such as consumer electronics and industrial applications are projected to grow at a slower pace.
On the supply side, cobalt production is set to increase at a 5% CAGR. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which currently supplies 76% of the world’s cobalt, is expected to see its share decline to 65% by 2030 as Indonesia boosts output, increasing its share from 12% to 22%.
Much of the short-term market trajectory depends on the DRC’s export policies. In February, the country implemented a four-month export ban to address oversupply, which had driven prices to a nine-year low. Since the ban, cobalt prices have surged 60% to $16 per pound, highlighting the market’s volatility and the importance of DRC’s policy decisions.
As global EV production accelerates and supply growth moderates, industry analysts expect tightening market conditions to support cobalt prices and eventually lead to a supply deficit. This trend underscores cobalt's growing strategic importance in the clean energy transition.
