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Commodity Trading Advisors Favor U.S. Stocks, Dollar, and Gold Ahead of Presidential Elections
**Meta Description:**
Discover how Commodity Trading Advisors are positioning themselves in U.S. equities, the dollar, and gold as the presidential elections approach, according to BofA's latest insights.
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Commodity Trading Advisors' Positions Ahead of the Elections
Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) are significantly favoring U.S. stocks, the dollar, and gold as the presidential elections approach, according to a recent note from Bank of America (BofA). In contrast, their positioning in U.S. Treasuries appears predominantly short.
BofA highlighted that CTA positioning in U.S. equities remains robust among trend followers, who are expected to sell off their holdings this week following a sharp decline in the S&P 500 last week. Additionally, gamma—an indicator of price sensitivity in options—remains short on the S&P 500 and is anticipated to diminish further if equity prices decline.
Ahead of the U.S. presidential elections, demand for safe havens like the dollar and gold is high, especially amid the tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. BofA anticipates that trend followers will increase their short positions in oil while reducing long positions in copper.
Recent rises in Treasury yields suggest that positioning across the curve is largely short on Treasuries. BofA analysts noted that although long-term U.S. Treasury futures trends remain bullish, many CTAs may have exited their long positions or switched to short positions.
In recent weeks, Treasury yields have surged due to expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow its rate-cutting pace. The central bank is widely expected to lower rates by 25 basis points soon, following a 50 basis point cut in September. Additionally, speculation surrounding a Trump victory could further influence inflationary policies and interest rates in the years to come.
