Currency snapshot (major pairs)

Dollar index trading at 94.02 (-0.55%)

Strength meter (today so far) – Euro +0.58%, Franc +0.51%, Yen +0.14%, GBP +0.64%

Strength meter (since last week) – Euro +0.88%, Franc +0.02%, Yen -0.92%, GBP +1.74%

EUR/USD –

Trading at 1.138

Trend meter –

• Long term – Buy, Medium term – Range/Buy, Short term – Buy

Support

• Long term – 1.08, Medium term – 1.115, Short term – 1.125   

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.17, Medium term – 1.153, Short term – 1.147

Economic release today –

• Consumer confidence will be released at 14:00 GMT.

Commentary –

• Euro is gaining once again as ECB delivers monetary policy. Our longer term target for Euro to reach as high as 1.20 against Dollar. Euro may drop towards 1.12 area in the near term before buying re-begin.

GBP/USD –

Trading at 1.442

Trend meter –

• Long term – Sell, Medium term – Sell, Short term – Range

Support –

• Long term – 1.4, Medium term – 1.4, Short term – 1.427 

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.467, Medium term – 1.45, Short term – 1.45

Economic release today –

• Retail sales grew 2.7% y/y, up 1.8% y/y excluding fuel.

Commentary –

• Pound remains as best performer of the week, rose against Dollar, despite weak retail sales data. We are withdrawing our bull call for GBP/USD as price broke below 1.406 support. Likely to drop further now. We expect Pound to reach as low as 1.32 area.

USD/JPY –                      

Trading at 109.6

Trend meter –

• Long term – Sell, Medium term – Range/ Sell, Short term – Sell

Support –

• Long term – 98.5, Medium term – 108, Short term – 108

Resistance –

• Long term – 121, Medium term – 115, Short term – 111.2

Economic release today –

• NIL

Commentary –

• Yen remains worst performer of the week. Active call – Buy Yen @119.5 with stop loss around 123.8 and target at 114 and 110, 108.9 and 98.5

USD/CHF –                                                                                         

Trading at 0.965

Trend meter –

• Long term – Buy, Medium term – Range, Short term – Range/Sell

Support –

• Long term – 0.905, Medium term – 0.927, Short term – 0.95

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.037, Medium term – 1.01, Short term – 0.98

Economic release today –

• Trade balance for March dropped to 2.16 billion.

Commentary –

• Franc needs to break 0.95 resistance for further gains. We expect Franc to strengthen against Dollar to as high as 0.9 area.