DBS Group Research downgrades Hong Kong’s GDP growth forecast to 0 pct for 2019, 0.5 pct for 2020

According to the latest report from DBS Group Research, Hong Kong’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth has been downgraded to zero percent from 2.5 percent for 2019, and to 0.5 percent from 2 percent in 2020.

While growth was benign at 0.6 percent y/y in 2Q19, it contracted 0.3 percent q/q. Another quarter of negative sequential growth in 3Q19 would tip Hong Kong into a technical recession. Second quarter growth was hurt by lingering trade tensions between China and the US, Hong Kong’s top two export destinations.

Merchandise exports growth have contracted eight straight months since November 2018; the -9 percent y/y print in June was the biggest drop since February 2016. By country, outward shipment to the US and China fell 6.6 percent and 5.3 percent respectively.

Meanwhile, exports to advanced economies were also sluggish; EU and Japan fell by 7.4 percent and 6.5 percent correspondingly. Likewise, outward cargoes to emerging market such as ASEAN were also flat from a year ago.