Daily Economic Outlook: 24th September, 2015

Following yesterday's mixed September PMI figures from China and the euro area, this morning will see markets paying specific attention to Germany's IFO business sentiment index. The headline measure, which has traditionally led euro area activity, has rebounded since Q4, although the index has been basically flat since April. 

"We anticipate that today's print will show a slight softening of overall confidence on the back of heightened concerns about global growth prospects. While this outcome would leave the Q3 average index virtually unchanged from its Q2 counterpart, the component focussing on business expectations for the next six months is expected to continue its recent slide", says Lloyds Bank.  

Despite last week's decision to maintain its policy rate target range at 0-0.25%, the dot plot of FOMC members' policy expectations revealed that most expect a 25bp tightening before the end of the year. FOMC Chair Janet Yellen's speech this evening will be pored over for clues on her thinking about this prospect. Ahead of her talk, US releases on August new home sales and durable goods orders (ex-transport) are expected to confirm the underlying strength of the domestic economy.   

BBA data on UK mortgage approvals should show continued gains while the Norwegian central bank is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 1.00%, added Lloyds Bank.