• The release of UK trade figures for April will provide today's domestic highlight. According to the March data the trade deficit narrowed by £0.5bn on the month to £2.8bn. This decline largely reflected a 5.4% rise in exports to countries outside the EU which offset a 2.9% decline in shipments to the EU. Today sees the final estimate of euro area Q1 GDP growth which is expected to be unchanged at the initial 0.4% q/q estimate, says Lloyds Bank. 
  
  
• Recent evidence points to a continuation of the euro area upturn into Q2. However, any positive knock-on effect to UK exports is likely to be partially countered by this year's appreciation of sterling against the euro. In addition, survey measures of export orders remain subdued. Consequently, the bank anticipates only a slight fall in the deficit to £2.7bn. 
  
  
• Despite last week's solid May employment report, markets are looking for further evidence of a US recovery before they fully accept the view that the FOMC will tighten policy in 2015. After falling sharply in Q1, the NFIB small business optimism index staged a partial recovery in April to 96.9 from 95.2 in March and another rise to 97.2 is expected from today's release for May, added Lloyds Bank. 

• Ahead of the business inventories data for April, which are released on Thursday, today's wholesale inventories figures, which feed into the overall measure, are expected to rise by 0.2% m/m, up from 0.1% in March. The JOLTS job vacancy data, which has been mentioned by the Fed Chair as an important metric of the health of the labour market, is expected to chime with ongoing improvement with a rise to 5.04m in April from 4.99m in March.