Daily outlook for crude oil prices

Quotes from Commerzbank Corporates & Markets:

-Oil prices dropped by as much as 3% yesterday and still find themselves under pressure this morning. Brent is trading at below $59 per barrel, while the WTI contract - which expires today - has dipped below the $50 per barrel mark. The marked price decline since yesterday was triggered by new inventory data from the US which were reported after close of trading yesterday evening by the US industry association API.

-The supply surplus is still causing US stock levels to rise hugely. According to the figures, US crude oil stocks last week soared by 14.3 million barrels, significantly higher imports being chiefly to blame. An increase of a "mere" 3.1 million barrels had been anticipated. According to the API, oil stocks at Cushing alone grew by this amount.

-The official inventory data to be published by the US Department of Energy this afternoon are thus subject to upside risks. In the past five weeks, inventories had already climbed by a good 35 million barrels to reach a record level. The expectation of a renewed steep inventory build in the US is initially likely to weigh further on oil prices ahead of the publication of the DOE's data.

-That said, it is questionable whether oil prices will fall further in the coming days. Attention could already switch tomorrow to the drilling activity figures due to be published on Friday evening by Baker Hughes. They are likely to show a further decline in the oil rig count in the US, thus fuelling expectations of a decrease in US oil supply.