De-escalation of US-Iran tensions likely to spark risk appetite, boost EM Asian currencies: Scotiabank

A de-escalation of US-Iran tensions is expected to spark risk appetite broadly and boost EM Asian currencies particularly the INR and KRW in the weeks ahead, according to the latest research report from Scotiabank.

South Korea’s exports of semiconductors declined at a slower pace in December, while Taiwan’s imports of semiconductor equipment have surged for two consecutive months. Earlier in November 2019, ASML CEO Peter Wennink said at a conference in Barcelona that he sees a strong demand from logic chip makers in the year of 2020.

ASML Holding NV is a leading semiconductor chip equipment manufacturer. South Korea’s semiconductor exports shrank 17.7 percent y/y in December after contracting 30.8 percent y/y the previous month. In terms of volume, the nation’s December overseas shipments of semiconductors rose 7.9 percent from the same period last year.

Taiwan’s imports of semiconductor equipment surged 156.4 percent y/y and 158.6 percent respectively in November and December, according to the official data. In addition, South Korea and Taiwan’s exports to Mainland China have been stabilizing and improving in the past months, along with their growing factory activity.

"We see early signs of global trade recovery that are supportive of export-driven currencies such as the KRW and TWD amid the Fed’s dovish stance and easing US-China trade tensions. Meanwhile, the THB’s persistent strength has raised the regulators’ concerns. We maintain our existing short USD and short THB positions against the KRW and TWD," Scotiabank further commented in the report.

US President Donald Trump on Wednesday signalled that the US would not respond militarily to Iran’s attacks on American forces in Iraq. Instead, he said the US would move ahead with "punishing economic sanctions."