Downside opens up for pound with break of trend line

Pound has broken below its key trend line support. Thursday pound moved higher after positive retail sales number taking support from the trend line. However on Friday, stronger than expected core CPI data from US and relatively hawkish Speech led pound lower and broke the key trend line.

Downside has now become exposed in pound, especially against dollar.

• There is no key data and event risks scheduled for pound this expect from GDP on Friday. So it is very much likely that GBP/USD will be taking cues from dollar side and for now dollar seems to be on strong footing, especially against currencies.

Data from UK had been mixed. While inflation has surprised to downside (-0.1% in April), retail sales have jumped back (+1.2% in April). Housing market is also showing signs of stability and price bounce back. (April HPI grew 7.7% y/y).

If economic activities pick up in rest of the quarters in US, pound is to go down lot more in US.