Singapore Budget 2026 Set for Fiscal Prudence as Growth Remains Resilient 
South Africa Eyes ECB Repo Lines as Inflation Eases and Rate Cuts Loom 
Bank of Canada Holds Interest Rate at 2.25% Amid Trade and Global Uncertainty 
Bank of Japan Signals Readiness for Near-Term Rate Hike as Inflation Nears Target 
BOJ Rate Decision in Focus as Yen Weakness and Inflation Shape Market Outlook 
RBA Expected to Raise Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points in February, ANZ Forecast Says 
Dollar Near Two-Week High as Stock Rout, AI Concerns and Global Events Drive Market Volatility 
U.S.-India Trade Framework Signals Major Shift in Tariffs, Energy, and Supply Chains 
Fed Confirms Rate Meeting Schedule Despite Severe Winter Storm in Washington D.C. 
Trump’s Inflation Claims Clash With Voters’ Cost-of-Living Reality 
MAS Holds Monetary Policy Steady as Strong Growth Raises Inflation Risks 
Bank of England Expected to Hold Interest Rates at 3.75% as Inflation Remains Elevated 
Russian Stocks End Mixed as MOEX Index Closes Flat Amid Commodity Strength 
The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday, maintaining its cautious stance as inflation aligns with the 2% target. After halving its key rate to 2% by June, the ECB has stayed on hold, citing stability in the 20-country eurozone economy. Policymakers remain watchful of external risks such as U.S. tariffs, rising German government spending, and political turbulence in France.
President Christine Lagarde is likely to remain intentionally vague about the outlook for monetary policy, but analysts expect her to leave the door open for a potential final rate cut. Inflation is projected to dip below target next year, fueling speculation of one more “insurance” cut around early 2025. HSBC notes that persistent risks of inflation undershooting suggest the ECB maintains a dovish bias.
Markets currently price in a 50-60% chance of a rate cut by spring, while the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to deliver several cuts next year. For the ECB, any future action will likely be minimal, signaling that most of the monetary easing cycle is complete.
The key debate remains between hawks, who argue the eurozone has shown resilience with strong consumption, rebounding industry, and German fiscal support, and doves, who warn tariffs and weak growth could weigh on consumption and prices. BNP Paribas forecasts resilience as trade uncertainty fades, while Societe Generale suggests cuts may be needed if inflation expectations fall further.
Meanwhile, political turmoil in France and rising bond yields add pressure but are not yet seen as warranting ECB intervention. With growth still fragile and inflation risks tilted downward, the central bank faces a delicate balance between holding steady and acting to preserve price stability.
