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Today European Central Bank (ECB) is to provide further guidance in policy meet. Result to be announced at 11:45 GMT, followed by press conference at 12:30 GMT. Meeting is to be held in Frankfurt.
Current policy measures-
- Deposit facility rate at -0.20 percent
- Refinancing rate 0.05 percent
- Marginal lending facility rate at 0.30 percent
- ECB started its asset purchase program of € 60 billion from March.
- Due to liquidity concern some front loading of asset purchase was done by ECB.
Expectation today -
- No change in monetary policy is expected today, however press conference is very vital, since market will be closely watching Mario Draghi's take on China's economic weakness and recent financial market volatility.
What to watch out for -
- Changes in growth and inflation forecast as hard data are improving across board. Most pivotal would be ECB's view on inflation and impact of lower oil price and Chinese economic weakness over it.
- How concerned ECB is over China's economic situation and if it's have an impact on policy decisions.
- ECB's take on latest financial market volatility.
- Expectations has been growing over further action by ECB - Mario Draghi's take on that.
- ECB's view on Euro and its recent act as a risk averse currency (if such question arises).
- ECB's take on Fresh Greek election.
Impact -
- Major focus will be on ECB's take on China and inflation. Comments over further monetary easing would be closely scrutinized.
- Euro would be bearish if Draghi hints at further easing by making incremental changes to the program or talks of more tools.
- However, Euro might turn bullish, if ECB suggests current level of Euro remains satisfactory along with current policy.
Euro is currently trading at 1.122, key support stands at 1.085 area and resistance around 1.163-1.123. Interim support is around 1.117 and resistance at 1.132 area.
