Market Roundup
- BoJ DepGov Nakaso - No need to adjust policy if inflation rises towards target, for action if crude oil price falls affect long-term inflation expectations, eased in October for various factors, weak JPY boosting exports.
- ECB/Belgium Central Bank Coene - Greece must reform, forget Syriza's false promises.
- ECB Coeure - Won't agree to Greece issuing more short-term debt, Greece running out of time.
- China Feb trade surplus $60.6 bln, exports +48.3% y/y, imports -20.5%, $10.8 bln, +14.2% and -10% expected.
- Japan Q4 GDP rev +0.4% q/q, +1.5% AR, +0.6% and +2.2% expected/prelim, CAPEX revised -0.1% q/q, +0.3% expected, prelim +0.1%, consumption +0.5%, prelim +0.3%.
- Japan Jan current account balance Y61.4 bln surplus, Y288.2 bln surplus expected.
- Japan Feb outstanding bank loans trln, +2.5% y/y, Jan +2.5%.
- Japan Feb economy watchers' survey service worker DI 50.1, Jan 45.6.
- Australia Feb overall job ads +0.9% m/m, newspapers +8.1%, internet +0.7%.
- New Zealand PM Key - Inflation could slow further, RBNZ doesn't have to tighten though.
- New Zealand Q4 mfg sales volumes +0.9% q/q, Q3 revised +0.5%.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0200 ET/0700 GMT) Germany Jan trade balance, E21.0 bln surplus consensus; previous E21.8 bln surplus.
- (0315 ET/0815 GMT) Switzerland Jan retail sales; previous +2.2% y/y.
- (0430 ET/0930 GMT) Eurozone Mar Sentix index, 15.0 consensus; previous 12.4.
- (0900 ET/1400 GMT) US Mar employment trends index; previous 127.9.
Key Events Ahead
- N/A EZ EcoFin meeting on Greek reform proposals.
- N/A German E2 bln 6-month Bubill, France 3/6/12-month BTF auctions.
- (0300 ET/0800 GMT) Norway PM Solberg, FinMin Jensen press conference on economy, budget.
- (1230 ET/1730 GMT) ECB/Buba Weidmann speech in Zurich.
- (1325 ET/1825 GMT) Cleveland Fed Mester speech at NABE Washington, DC annual conference.
- (1830 ET/2330 GMT) Dallas Fed Fisher lecture at Rice University.
FX Recap
EUR/USD opened at 1.0831 in the Asian session and slid to 1.0822, moving further south from Friday's trough of 1.0839 to reach lows not seen since September 2003. It currently trades around 1.0837. Pair is likely to find support at 1.0762 levels (Sept 2003 low).
USD/JPY hit 121.11 not far from three-month high of 121.29. Pair is likely to test the resistance at 121.84 levels, and a break above will confirm the bullish trend and target 124.13. On the flipside, support is seen at 119.89 and a break below would weaken the bullish bias.
AUD/USD opened at 0.7707 in Asia and is currently trading near 0.7691 levels. It broke below the 0.77 handle and is likely to test 0.7627 (Feb Low) levels. It is likely to find support at 0.7529 and further at 0.7335. On the upside, only a convincing break above the 0.7847 levels would confirm the dampening of the downward trend.
NZD/USD opened at 0.7356 in Asia and is trading around 0.7332 levels. Markets now focus on the RBNZ Cash rate announcement scheduled later in the week. On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at 0.7400 levels, above which the gains could be extended to 0.7430 levels. On the flipside, support is seen at 0.7312 levels, and further at 0.7288 levels.
USD/CNY: China's yuan weakened on Monday, after the PBOC set its midpoint rate at the lowest level since November, in a signal that the monetary authorities might guide the currency slightly lower. Prior to market open, the central bank set the midpoint at 6.1563 per dollar. Spot yuan opened at 6.2651 per dollar and was trading at 6.2656 at midday.
