Market Roundup
• German PPI (MoM) (Mar)2.5%,1.4% forecast,-0.5%previous
•EU Construction Output (MoM) (Feb)-1.90%,-1.33% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 13:30 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Mar): 0.2%, 0.4% previous
•13:30 Canada Core CPI (YoY) (Mar): 2.5%, 2.3% previous
•13:30 Canada CPI (MoM) (Mar): 0.9%, 1.1% forecast, 0.5% previous
•13:30 Canada CPI (YoY) (Mar): 2.4%, 2.5% forecast, 1.8% previous
•13:30 Canada Common CPI (YoY) (Mar): 2.6%, 2.6% forecast, 2.4% previous
•13:30 Canada Median CPI (YoY) (Mar): 2.3%, 2.4% forecast, 2.3% previous
•13:30 Canada Trimmed CPI (YoY) (Mar): 2.2%, 2.3% forecast, 2.3% previous
•14:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction: 2.476%, 2.634% previous
•14:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction: 2.159%, 2.248% previous
•14:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction: 2.319%, 2.448% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•16:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 3.620% previous
•16:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 3.610% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahea
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher but gains were limited on Monday as renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and fading hopes for a Middle East peace deal sent investors toward safe havens.The United States said on Sunday that it had seized an Iranian cargo ship that tried to run its blockade, while Iran said it would retaliate, stoking fears about a resumption of hostilities.Tehran also said it would not participate in a second round of negotiations that the U.S. had hoped to kick off before its two-week ceasefire with Iran expires on Tuesday. Now in its eighth week, the war has created the most severe shock to energy supplies in history, sending oil prices surging because of the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which typically handles about a fifth of the world's oil shipments. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1823(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1900(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1728(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1658(April 14th low).
GBP/USD: The pound retreated against the dollar on Monday as raising the prospect that a two-week ceasefire might collapse and pushing investors towards the safe-haven U.S. dollar.Tensions were running high after the U.S. said it had seized an Iranian cargo ship that tried to run its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.Market participants were also keeping an eye on UK assets as British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer prepared to address parliament as he faces calls to resign after it emerged former U.S. ambassador Peter Mandelson had failed a vetting process.Sterling has climbed 2% this month, after falling 1.9% in April, as hopes of a ceasefire deal have caused investors to sell the dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3591(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3655(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3532(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3499(April 14th low).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar initial dipped but recovered ground on Monday as the pair showed resilience despite escalating U.S.-Iran tensions that typically weigh on risk-sensitive currencies. Washington seized an Iranian cargo ship on Sunday for attempting to break its blockade, with Iran vowing a response and raising conflict concerns. Tehran said it would not participate in a second round of negotiations that the U.S. had hoped to kick off before the ceasefire expires on Tuesday. The United States has maintained a blockade of Iranian ports, while Iran has lifted and then reimposed its own blockade on marine traffic passing through the crucial waterway. The Australian calendar is light this week, so the Aussie's movements are likely to be dictated by headlines from the Middle East. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7170(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7229(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7125(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.7034(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Monday as renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and fading hopes for a Middle East peace deal sent investors toward greenback.The United States said on Sunday that it had seized an Iranian cargo ship that tried to run its blockade, while Iran said it would retaliate, stoking fears about a resumption of hostilities.Tehran also said it would not participate in a second round of negotiations that the U.S. had hoped to kick off before its two-week ceasefire with Iran expires on Tuesday.The market's focus will also be on the Bank of Japan meeting later this month. Governor Kazuo Ueda has refrained from pre-committing to an April rate hike with the war muddling the outlook, but he left a few hawkish signs after last week's IMF meetings, suggesting tighter policy by June. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.23(SMA 20) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.73(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 158.07(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Monday as concerns grew that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire could collapse after Washington seized an Iranian cargo ship accused of breaching its blockade, prompting Tehran to vow retaliation.
At GMT (13:40) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.40 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 1.04 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.92 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell on Monday as a stronger U.S. dollar and renewed inflation fears, triggered by another Strait of Hormuz closure, pushed oil prices higher.
Spot gold was down 0.8% at $4,790.59 per ounce, as of 1103 GMT, after hitting its lowest since April 13 earlier in the session.U.S. gold futures for June delivery fell 1.4% to $4,811.
Oil prices jumped about 5% in Monday trading as fears grew that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire could collapse after Washington seized an Iranian cargo ship, while traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained largely halted.
Brent crude futures advanced $4.37, or 4.8%, to $94.75 a barrel by 1148 GMT and U.S. West Texas Intermediate was up $4.76, or 5.7%, at $88.61.
