Market Roundup
• US Initial Jobless Claims: 209K, 206K forecast, 210K previous.
•Canada Trade Balance (Nov): -2.20B, -0.70B forecast, -0.40B previous.
• US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q3): 4.9%, 4.9% forecast, 3.3% previous.
• US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q3): -1.9%, -1.9% forecast, 1.0% previous.
• US Trade Balance (Nov): -56.80B, -43.40B forecast, -29.20B previous.
• US Exports (Nov): 292.10B, , 303.00B previous.
• US Imports (Nov): 348.90B, 332.10B previous.
• US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,827K, 1,860K forecast, 1,865K previous.
•Canada Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (Nov): 2.45%, 2.00% previous.
•Canada Exports (Nov): 63.94B, 65.78B previous.
•Canada Imports (Nov): 66.14B, 66.18B previous.
• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 206.25K, 204.00K previous.
• US Factory Orders (MoM) (Nov): 2.7%, 1.7% forecast, -1.2% previous.
• US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Nov): 6.5%, 6.6% previous.
• US Factory Orders Ex Transportation (MoM) (Nov): 0.2%, -0.1% previous.
• US Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) (Nov): 0.4%, 0.5% previous.
• US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Nov): 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.5% previous.
• US Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Nov): 1.3%, -0.4% previous.
• US Natural Gas Storage: -242B, -237B forecast, -120B previous.
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4): 4.2%, 5.4% forecast, 5.4% previous.
• US 4-Week Bill Auction: 3.630%, 3.630% previous.
• US 8-Week Bill Auction: 3.635%, 3.630% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 00:30 Australia PPI (YoY) (Q4): 3.5%, previous.
• 00:30 Australia PPI (QoQ) (Q4): 1.1% forecast, 1.0% previous
• 00:30 Australia Housing Credit (Dec): 0.6% previous.
• 00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Dec): 0.6% forecast, 0.6% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro firmed on Thursday as the dollar softened amid ongoing uncertainty over U.S. economic policy and geopolitical developments. Data on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell slightly last week, still consistent with a relatively low level of layoffs, though lackluster hiring is stoking anxiety among households over the labor market. The euro's recent rise above the key $1.20 level has concerned European Central Bank policymakers, who warned that the currency's rapid appreciation could have deflationary effects.ECB board member Isabel Schnabel reiterated on Wednesday monetary policy was in a 'good place' and interest rates are expected to remain at their current levels for an extended period while financial markets are pricing steady rates through early 2027. . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2047(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2065(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1939 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1849(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound traded near multi-year highs against the dollar on Thursday as investors focused on next week’s Bank of England decision and UK political developments. Holding rates this month appears less controversial after data showed the strongest private sector activity since April 2024 and inflation remaining unexpectedly above the MPC’s 2% target, according to a Reuters poll. Political uncertainty also lingered after Labour’s Andy Burnham was blocked from standing, sparking accusations of internal maneuvering, while the party continues to trail Nigel Farage’s Reform UK in polls ahead of key local elections in May. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3848(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3889(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3691(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3572(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar firmed against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as upbeat Canadian trade data and higher oil price boosted loonie. Canada posted a huge jump in its monthly international trade deficit in November as merchandise exports dropped by a big margin, data showed on Thursday, and economists said firms were still pursuing their drive to diversify trade away from the U.S.It posted a goods trade deficit of C$2.2 billion ($1.62 billion) in November, compared with an upwardly revised C$395 million registered in October, Statistics Canada said. Oil prices jumped 3% to a five-month high on Thursday amid fears that a potential U.S. attack on Iran could disrupt global crude supplies. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3578 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3664 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3487(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3441(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged lower on Thursday as investors were jittery about U.S. policy even as a mildly hawkish Federal Reserve provided some support. The dollar has been under pressure for several reasons, including expectations of continued Federal Reserve rate cuts, tariff uncertainty and U.S. policy volatility. The dollar slide has provided some reprieve for the battered yen . The Japanese currency has tracked around the 152 to 154 per dollar range for most of this week thanks to talk of rate checks from the U.S. and Japan last week - a move often seen as a precursor to intervention. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.14(50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.36(38.2%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.09(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.28 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Europe’s benchmark index reversed early gains to end lower on Thursday, dragged down by a tech selloff after weak investor reaction to SAP and Microsoft earnings.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.17 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 2.07 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.06 percent.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed lower on Thursday as Microsoft shares slid 10% after its earnings report, dragging the technology sector, while the Dow edged higher.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.11 % percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.13 % percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.72% percent
Commodities Recap
Oil prices climbed 3% to a five-month high on Thursday on rising concerns that global supplies could be disrupted if the U.S. attacks Iran, one of OPEC's biggest crude producers.
Brent futures rose $2.31, or 3.4%, to settle at $70.71 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained $2.21, or 3.5%, to settle at $65.42.
Gold slipped on Thursday as investors booked profits after hitting a record high, but prices were still on track for their strongest monthly performance since the 1980s amid elevated economic and geopolitical uncertainty.
Spot gold was 1.3%lower at $5,330.20 an ounce by 01:30 p.m. ET (1830 GMT).U.S. gold futures for February delivery settled 0.3% lower at$5,318.40.
